While many firms are just now reacting to AI's impact, major credit investors like KKR have been actively underwriting AI-driven business model risk for nearly six years. This proactive, long-term approach to assessing technological disruption is a core part of their due diligence process, not a recent development.
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Contrary to the popular belief that failing to adopt AI is the biggest risk, some companies may be harming their value by developing AI practices too quickly. The market and client needs may not be ready for advanced AI integration, leading to a misallocation of resources and slower-than-expected returns.
Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.
Unlike prior tech revolutions funded mainly by equity, the AI infrastructure build-out is increasingly reliant on debt. This blurs the line between speculative growth capital (equity) and financing for predictable cash flows (debt), magnifying potential losses and increasing systemic failure risk if the AI boom falters.
C-suites are more motivated to adopt AI for revenue-generating "front office" activities (like investment analysis) than for cost-saving "back office" automation. The direct, tangible impact on making more money overcomes the organizational inertia that often stalls efficiency-focused technology deployments.
Unlike mobile or internet shifts that created openings for startups, AI is an "accelerating technology." Large companies can integrate it quickly, closing the competitive window for new entrants much faster than in previous platform shifts. The moat is no longer product execution but customer insight.
For a proven, hyper-growth AI company, traditional business risks (market, operational, tech) are minimal. The sole risk for a late-stage investor is overpaying for several years of future growth that may decelerate faster than anticipated.
In 2015-2016, major tech companies actively avoided the term "AI," fearing it was tainted from previous "AI winters." It wasn't until around 2017 that branding as an "AI company" became a positive signal, highlighting the incredible speed of the recent AI revolution and shift in public perception.
Despite rapid software advances like deep learning, the deployment of self-driving cars was a 20-year process because it had to integrate with the mature automotive industry's supply chains, infrastructure, and business models. This serves as a reminder that AI's real-world impact is often constrained by the readiness of the sectors it aims to disrupt.
For venture capitalists investing in AI, the primary success indicator is massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. Traditional concerns like entry price become secondary when a company is fundamentally redefining its market size. Without this expansion, the investment is not worthwhile in the current AI landscape.
Periods of intense technological disruption, like the current AI wave, destabilize established hierarchies and biases. This creates a unique opportunity for founders from non-traditional backgrounds who may be more resilient and can identify market needs overlooked by incumbents.
