To prevent promising startups from failing from funding gaps—the "Valley of Death"—the DoD actively "crowds capital" around them. This stack includes rapid R&D contracts, manufacturing grants, and low-cost loans from a $200B lending authority.

In a major strategic shift, the Pentagon is asking prime defense contractors to invest their own capital—billions of dollars—to expand munition production "on spec." This pushes immense financial risk onto publicly traded companies, a difficult ask given the government's historically cyclical and unreliable purchasing patterns.

The US is not facing a single issue but a convergence of multiple stressors. Unsustainable fiscal policy, fragile funding markets, geopolitical shifts, energy production issues, and leveraged financial players create a highly volatile environment where one failure could trigger a cascade.

The American defense industrial base is not constrained by a lack of capital but by crippling uncertainty over future demand. The reliance on single-year congressional budgets prevents companies from making the long-term, multi-year investments necessary to plan for and build capacity efficiently.

Investing in defense, energy, and public safety is not just another vertical. These foundational sectors uphold the stable democracy on which all other tech, like B2B SaaS, depends. A failure in these foundations renders investments in higher-level software and services worthless.

Startups in capital-intensive sectors like defense don't need to rely solely on venture equity to build factories. A large government contract can be leveraged to secure significant project financing from other financial partners, preserving equity for R&D and growth.

The Fed's policy of raising interest rates to combat consumer inflation has the unintended consequence of making long-term, capital-intensive industrial projects unviable. This hollows out the manufacturing base and prevents the reshoring of critical materials processing essential for US security.

When countries run large, structural government deficits, their policy options become limited. Historically, this state of 'fiscal dominance' leads to the implementation of capital controls and other financial frictions to prevent capital flight and manage the currency, increasing risks for investors.

The banking crisis will have a predictable ripple effect. Banks holding devalued bonds will stop lending and buying more government debt. This will choke off funding for commercial real estate, venture capital, and private equity, triggering cost-cutting and layoffs.