By combining public and private strategies, the firm observes that public markets react more quickly to crises. This provides predictive insights into the slower-moving private markets, creating an informational edge to anticipate cycles and opportunities before they fully materialize.

Public companies run by their founders are not just a qualitative theme but a quantifiable factor, like 'value' or 'quality'. Crescent AM's research shows isolating this factor and tilting a passive portfolio towards it adds one to two percentage points of alpha per year, even in small caps.

Historically, private equity was pursued for its potential outperformance (alpha). Today, with shrinking public markets, its main value is providing diversification and access to a growing universe of private companies that are no longer available on public exchanges. This makes it a core portfolio completion tool.

Private credit allows investors to act like chefs—deeply involved from ingredient sourcing (diligence) to final creation (structuring). Liquid market investors are like food critics, limited to analyzing the finished product with restricted access to information, which increases risk.

Many LPs focus solely on backing the 'best people.' However, a manager's chosen strategy and market (the 'neighborhood') is a more critical determinant of success. A brilliant manager playing a difficult game may underperform a good manager in a structurally advantaged area.

Over the past two decades, equity analysis has evolved beyond simply valuing a company's physical or financial assets. The modern approach focuses on identifying "alpha" factors—trading baskets of stocks grouped by shared characteristics like strong balance sheets or non-US revenue exposure.

Top-performing, founder-led businesses often don't want to sell control. A non-control investment strategy allows access to this exclusive deal flow, tapping into the "founder alpha" from high skin-in-the-game leaders who consistently outperform hired CEOs.

True alpha in venture capital is found at the extremes. It's either in being a "market maker" at the earliest stages by shaping a raw idea, or by writing massive, late-stage checks where few can compete. The competitive, crowded middle-stages offer less opportunity for outsized returns.

Instead of focusing on process, allocators should first ask managers fundamental questions like "What do you believe?" and "Why does this work?" to uncover their core investment philosophy. This simple test filters out the majority of firms that lack a deeply held, clearly articulated conviction about their edge.