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LA's on-location filming metric, 'shoot days,' peaked at 40,000 in 2016. Post-strikes, instead of recovering as many hoped, shoot days fell below 20,000, representing a 50% collapse in production volume and dashing industry hopes for a 2025 rebound.
The traditional Hollywood production model, with its bloated crews and high costs, is unsustainable. AI will drastically lower production costs while audience preferences shift to short-form video. This dual threat will force a brutal economic reckoning and consolidation.
High costs and red tape have pushed film production out of Los Angeles. Ben Affleck suggests AI tools, like generating realistic backdrops, could reverse this trend. By enabling crews to shoot a North Pole scene in a local studio, AI reduces logistical expenses, potentially making Hollywood the central, cost-effective hub for talent and production again.
Hollywood's current crisis is self-inflicted, stemming from a decades-long failure to adapt its business models and economics. Instead of innovating to compete with tech-driven services like Netflix, the industry persisted with inefficient structures and is now blaming disruptors for inevitable consumer-driven changes.
Hollywood has been losing film productions to cheaper locations. AI-powered visual effects could slash costs by eliminating the need for on-location filming. This could make shooting in Los Angeles economically viable again, sparking a resurgence for the city as a production hub.
The potential acquisition of Warner Bros. by Paramount, backed by the power-seeking Ellison family, could paradoxically benefit Hollywood's workforce. An owner focused on ambition over immediate profits may ignite a spending war, forcing competitors to increase pay and boosting employment for writers, actors, and crew.
Roy Wood Jr. argues that relying on states like Georgia or North Carolina for TV production is risky. Unlike California, their tax incentives are often tied to the political whims of changing governors, which can cause production to vanish overnight and create industry instability.
While writers and actors garner attention in the AI debate, the most immediate job threat is to 'below-the-line' workers. Roles like hair and makeup, set design, and grips are on the precipice of being disrupted or replaced by generative AI, posing a huge risk to a large segment of LA's local economy.
The most tangible fear of AI in Hollywood isn't replacing A-list actors, who have leverage for consent and compensation. The immediate threat is to production jobs—grips, makeup—as AI enables digital reshoots and effects, reducing the need for on-set labor.
While creative potential is often cited, the main impetus for AI integration is the film industry's urgent need to slash production expenses. The ability to generate a scene in minutes for a fraction of the cost of a traditional shoot is the most compelling argument for studios.
The decline in Hollywood filming has severe, direct ripple effects on LA's local economy. Simple, routine activities like large writer's rooms ordering daily lunches provided a lifeline for local restaurants. The shutdown of these productions has pushed many of these small businesses, who barely survived the pandemic, into failure.