Founders in deep tech and space are moving beyond traditional TAM analysis. They justify high valuations by pitching narratives of creating entirely new markets, like interplanetary humanity or space-based data centers. This shifts the conversation from 'what is the market?' to 'what could the market become?'.

A key investment criterion should be whether a company's story or sector, like AI or space, is compelling enough that a broad base of investors will eventually care. This narrative-driven screen helps identify stocks with high potential for future liquidity and multiple expansion, independent of current fundamentals.

The startup landscape now operates under two different sets of rules. Non-AI companies face intense scrutiny on traditional business fundamentals like profitability. In contrast, AI companies exist in a parallel reality of 'irrational exuberance,' where compelling narratives justify sky-high valuations.

Sam Altman's ability to tell a compelling, futuristic story is likened to Steve Jobs' "reality distortion field." This storytelling is not just a personality trait but a necessary skill for founders of moonshot companies to secure capital and talent when their vision is still just a PowerPoint slide and a lot of hand-waving.

Companies like Tesla and Oracle achieve massive valuations not through profits, but by capturing the dominant market story, such as becoming an "AI company." Investors should analyze a company's ability to create and own the next compelling narrative.

A founder's credibility acts as a multiplier on the perceived value of their narrative. An entrepreneur like Elon Musk, with a track record of success, receives a "multiple expansion on trust," allowing their futuristic stories to attract capital at valuations and scales that a first-time founder could not achieve.

When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.

xAI secured a $20B round, up from a rumored $15B, despite skepticism about its traction. The narrative shifted when possibilities of a merger into a larger "Elon Inc. Megacorp" with SpaceX emerged. This suggests that for certain high-profile founders, a grand, entertaining vision can trump conventional product metrics for investors.

By raising billions for Safe Super Intelligence without any product plans, Ilya Sutskever is employing an extreme version of the "pre-revenue" strategy. This approach avoids scrutiny of business metrics, allowing the company's valuation to be driven entirely by narrative, talent, and the promise of future breakthroughs, mirroring tactics from previous tech bubbles.