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According to pioneer Jürgen Schmidhuber, Large Language Models by themselves are insufficient for AGI. True general intelligence requires two components: a predictive "world model" and a separate "controller" network that uses the model to plan and execute actions, like a baby learning through experiments.
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OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever suggests the path to AGI is not creating a pre-trained, all-knowing model, but an AI that can learn any task as effectively as a human. This reframes the challenge from knowledge transfer to creating a universal learning algorithm, impacting how such systems would be deployed.
The popular conception of AGI as a pre-trained system that knows everything is flawed. A more realistic and powerful goal is an AI with a human-like ability for continual learning. This system wouldn't be deployed as a finished product, but as a 'super-intelligent 15-year-old' that learns and adapts to specific roles.
Language is just one 'keyhole' into intelligence. True artificial general intelligence (AGI) requires 'world modeling'—a spatial intelligence that understands geometry, physics, and actions. This capability to represent and interact with the state of the world is the next critical phase of AI development beyond current language models.
Judea Pearl, a foundational figure in AI, argues that Large Language Models (LLMs) are not on a path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He states they merely summarize human-generated world models rather than discovering causality from raw data. He believes scaling up current methods will not overcome this fundamental mathematical limitation.
The popular concept of AGI as a static, all-knowing entity is flawed. A more realistic and powerful model is one analogous to a 'super intelligent 15-year-old'—a system with a foundational capacity for rapid, continual learning. Deployment would involve this AI learning on the job, not arriving with complete knowledge.
Demis Hassabis argues against an LLM-only path to AGI, citing DeepMind's successes like AlphaGo and AlphaFold as evidence. He advocates for "hybrid systems" (or neurosymbolics) that combine neural networks with other techniques like search or evolutionary methods to discover truly new knowledge, not just remix existing data.
Simply making LLMs larger will not lead to AGI. True advancement requires solving two distinct problems: 1) Plasticity, the ability to continually learn without "catastrophic forgetting," and 2) moving from correlation-based pattern matching to building causal models of the world.
Arvind Krishna firmly believes that today's LLM technology path is insufficient for reaching Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He gives it extremely low odds, stating that a breakthrough will require fusing current models with structured, hard knowledge, a field known as neurosymbolic AI, before AGI becomes plausible.
Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis argues that today's large models are insufficient for AGI. He believes progress requires reintroducing algorithmic techniques from systems like AlphaGo, specifically planning and search, to enable more robust reasoning and problem-solving capabilities beyond simple pattern matching.
A key gap between AI and human intelligence is the lack of experiential learning. Unlike a human who improves on a job over time, an LLM is stateless. It doesn't truly learn from interactions; it's the same static model for every user, which is a major barrier to AGI.
