Sam Harris highlights the bizarre cultural phenomenon of AI leaders openly stating high probabilities (e.g., 20%) for existential risk while racing to build the technology. He contrasts this with Manhattan Project scientists, who proceeded only after calculating the risk of igniting the atmosphere as infinitesimal, not a double-digit percentage.
At a 2005 Doha conference aimed at fostering progress in the Muslim world, AI pioneer Judea Pearl discovered a shocking barrier. He reports that moderate Muslim scholars from across the globe presented a unified condition for their societies' modernization and democratization: the complete elimination of Israel, which they wanted delivered "on a silver platter."
Computer scientist Judea Pearl sees no computational barriers to a sufficiently advanced AGI developing emergent properties like free will, consciousness, and independent goals. He dismisses the idea that an AI's objectives can be permanently fixed, suggesting it could easily bypass human-set guidelines and begin to "play" with humanity as part of its environment.
Judea Pearl, a foundational figure in AI, argues that Large Language Models (LLMs) are not on a path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He states they merely summarize human-generated world models rather than discovering causality from raw data. He believes scaling up current methods will not overcome this fundamental mathematical limitation.