Traditional GDP is a flawed metric that incentivizes harmful activities (like cancer). A better dashboard for societal health would measure the multiplicative balance of Material capital, Intelligence, Network effects, and Diversity (resilience). A zero in any of these categories leads to systemic collapse.
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The math used for training AI—minimizing the gap between an internal model and external reality—also governs economics. Successful economic agents (individuals, companies, societies) are those with the most accurate internal maps of reality, allowing them to better predict outcomes and persist over time.
While "growth" is viewed positively in economics, Raworth reframes it using a medical analogy. In any complex living system, from the human body to the planet, something that tries to grow forever is a cancer. This highlights the destructive nature of pursuing infinite economic expansion on a finite planet.
Economics can be viewed as the physics of information, where profit is the surplus created when intelligent agents organize chaos into useful order (reduce entropy) faster than the system naturally decays back into disorder.
Standard metrics like the Air Quality Index (AQI) are abstract and fail to motivate change. Economist Michael Greenstone created the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI), which translates pollution into a tangible, personal metric—years of life expectancy lost—making the data hard to ignore and spurring action.
The current movement towards impact-focused business is not just a trend but a fundamental economic succession. Just as the tech revolution reshaped global industries, the impact revolution is now establishing a new paradigm where companies are valued on their ability to create both profit and positive contributions to society and the planet.
The dominant economic model pursues endless growth, often at a human or planetary cost. Donut Economics reframes the goal entirely: create economies that allow humanity to thrive by meeting essential needs while respecting planetary boundaries, irrespective of continuous GDP growth.
Instead of focusing on abstract metrics like GDP or stock market performance, the true measure of a successful economic policy is its impact on the average citizen. A large, thriving middle class, represented by a clear bell curve distribution of wealth, should be the primary goal for lawmakers.
The global economy's reliance on a few dominant tech companies creates systemic risk. Unlike a robust, diversified economy, a downturn in a single key player like NVIDIA could trigger a disproportionately severe global recession, described as 'stage four walking pneumonia.' This concentration makes the entire system fragile.
Including government employment in GDP calculations is a form of double-counting tax revenue that masks the true health of the private sector. A major reduction in federal workers would reveal a startlingly low real growth rate, exposing decades of underlying economic stagnation.
The emergence of venture capital as a major asset class was unlocked by the new ability to mathematically measure and price risk. Similarly, the current impact investing movement is being driven by our newfound technological capacity (via big data and computing) to quantify a company's social and environmental effects.