The latest US sanctions campaign against Iran was presented as a major offensive but lacked significant new actions, such as sanctions on major Chinese banks. This suggests the US is pivoting from military options to economic threats that it may be hesitant to fully enforce, risking that the Iranian regime perceives it as weakness.

Unable to achieve a decisive military victory, the US and Iran are locked in a "game of uncle." The US aims to inflict maximum damage on Iran's infrastructure, while Iran targets the global economy to create international pressure on the US to cease hostilities.

The specific targeting choices in the initial Iran strikes—leadership, navy warships, and military infrastructure—suggest the primary goal is economic control, specifically securing the Strait of Hormuz. Had the true objective been nuclear deterrence, the focus would have been on destroying nuclear facilities, which was not the case.

The conflict is mismatched: the US focuses on destroying Iran's conventional navy and air force, while Iran employs an asymmetric strategy using drones, missiles, and fast boats to disrupt global commerce. This makes traditional US military metrics of success largely irrelevant to the actual economic conflict.

The public threats of a military strike against Iran may be a high-stakes negotiating tactic, consistent with Trump's style of creating chaos before seeking a deal. The goal is likely not war, which would be politically damaging, but to force Iran into economic concessions or a new agreement on US terms.

Instead of direct military intervention, a modern strategy involves crippling a nation's economy and military so severely that the regime deteriorates from internal pressure. This approach aims to force a collapse without committing ground troops, which is politically unpopular.

While US strikes weaken Iran's military, Trump's simultaneous focus on keeping oil markets stable allows Iran to sell its oil at a premium. This creates a contradictory outcome where Iran's economic leverage and funding for future aggression increase, even as its military is degraded.

The US approach to Iran is not traditional regime change with ground troops. Instead, it involves targeted strikes to eliminate key leaders ("decapitation"), creating a power vacuum with the hope that the already revolutionary-minded Iranian public will topple the government from within.

The Iranian regime is expected to withstand current economic pressures by trying to 'wait out' the crisis. The belief is that the negative impact of the resulting energy shock on the global economy will eventually weaken international resolve before their own economy buckles.