The future of armed forces isn't a total replacement of traditional assets with drones. Instead, the dominant model will be a "hybrid force" that integrates expensive, crewed platforms like stealth jets and aircraft carriers with complementary unmanned systems like "loyal wingmen" drones and autonomous ships for scouting and high-risk missions.

Wargaming suggests that instead of flying alongside manned aircraft, unmanned systems are most effective when decoupled. Their best roles are as long-endurance decoys to confuse incoming missiles or as autonomous swarms in a designated kill zone.

The US Defense Industrial Base is optimized for a few high-cost, technologically advanced platforms. This model fails to meet the demands of modern conflicts, which require large volumes of affordable, attritable hardware to counter tactics used by adversaries in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The military is applying powerful AI software for intelligence and targeting, but the physical hardware—planes, missiles, and interceptors—was not designed for this new reality. This mismatch creates inefficiencies, such as using expensive Patriot missiles designed for jets to shoot down cheap drones, highlighting a hardware-software gap.

The economic model of modern warfare is shifting against the US. Defending against Iranian Shahed drones, which cost as little as $7,000, requires firing Patriot missiles that cost $4 million each. This deeply unfavorable cost-exchange ratio makes traditional air defense economically unsustainable against massed, low-cost attacks.

Anduril's autonomous Fury fighter jet flies alongside manned aircraft as a force multiplier. It extends the pilot's sensor and weapons range while taking on high-risk maneuvers. This allows for strategies that involve sacrificing autonomous assets to gain an advantage, without the ethical problem of losing human lives.

Nations like Iran and Russia deploy vast numbers of cheap drones (around $55,000 each), forcing defenders to use multi-million dollar missiles. This creates a severe cost imbalance, making traditional, high-end air defense economically unsustainable over time.

The high cost of advanced aircraft like the F-35 fighter jet stems from ensuring pilot safety. Drones, by being unmanned, remove this expensive constraint. Since crashes are acceptable, drones can be produced cheaply and at scale, unlocking their disruptive economic potential across industries.

Recent wargames show that pairing manned and unmanned systems is often counterproductive. The need to protect the supposedly "expendable" robot compromises the mission, as it can't be put at risk if it endangers the human crew nearby, negating its core value.