Since 2022, AI has created a pivotal moment where the long-term value of existing software is being questioned by both investors and customers. MongoDB's CEO asserts that in this new stack, only two layers feel certain to endure: the foundational data layer where information is stored and the LLM layer that provides intelligence. Everything in between must now re-prove its value.
Related Insights
History shows that major technological shifts like the internet and AI require a fundamental re-architecting of everything from silicon and networking up to software. The industry repeatedly forgets this lesson, mistakenly declaring parts of the stack, like hardware, as commoditized right before the next wave hits.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, MongoDB's CEO reveals enterprise leaders have a surprising appetite for full system replacement. An AI-native company that can replace an entire legacy system of record—making it cheaper, faster, and better—will get a leader's attention far more effectively than one offering an incremental feature layer on top of an existing platform.
Don't just sprinkle AI features onto your existing product ('AI at the edge'). Transformative companies rethink workflows and shrink their old codebase, making the LLM a core part of the solution. This is about re-architecting the solution from the ground up, not just enhancing it.
The ease of building applications on top of powerful LLMs will lead companies to create their own custom software instead of buying third-party SaaS products. This shift, combined with the risk of foundation models moving up the stack, signals the end of the traditional SaaS era.
The enduring moat in the AI stack lies in what is hardest to replicate. Since building foundation models is significantly more difficult than building applications on top of them, the model layer is inherently more defensible and will naturally capture more value over time.
Unlike prior tech cycles with a clear direction, the AI wave has a deep divide. SaaS vendors see AI enhancing existing applications, while venture capitalists bet that AI models will subsume and replace the entire SaaS application layer, creating massive disruption.
The middle layer of the AI stack (software infrastructure for data movement or frameworks) is a difficult place to build a company. Foundation models are incentivized to add more capabilities from below, leaving little room for defensible platforms in between applications.
Value in the AI stack will concentrate at the infrastructure layer (e.g., chips) and the horizontal application layer. The "middle layer" of vertical SaaS companies, whose value is primarily encoded business logic, is at risk of being commoditized by powerful, general AI agents.
Advanced AI tools have made writing software trivially easy, erasing the traditional moat of technical execution. The new differentiators for businesses are non-technical assets like brand trust, distribution networks, and community, as the software itself has become instantly replicable.
The fundamental shift from AI isn't about replacing foundational model companies like OpenAI. Instead, AI creates a new technological substrate—productized intelligence—that will engender an entirely new breed of software companies, marking the end of the traditional SaaS playbook.
