Beyond displacing current workers, AI will lead to hiring "abatement," where companies proactively eliminate roles from their hiring plans altogether. This is a subtle but profound workforce shift, as entire job categories may vanish from the market before employees can be retrained.

Whether AI productivity gains create or destroy jobs depends on how much more consumers buy when prices fall. If demand is "inelastic," firms will fire workers. If it's "elastic," they might hire more. Economists lack sufficient data on this elasticity across sectors, making predictions highly uncertain.

Analyzing AI's impact at the job level is misleading. A more nuanced approach is to focus on tasks as the atomic unit of disruption. This allows for a better understanding of how roles will shift and evolve as certain tasks are automated, rather than assuming entire jobs will simply disappear.

Economists who historically dismissed AI's threat to employment are beginning to shift their stance, according to the New York Times. The long-held view that technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is now being questioned in light of AI's unique, cognitive-automation capabilities.

The fear of AI taking jobs is misplaced. With declining populations and aging workforces, essential industries like farming and trucking face severe labor shortages. AI-driven autonomy isn't a threat but a timely solution, filling critical gaps that humans are increasingly unwilling or unable to fill.

AI is a key factor in the current labor market stagnation. Companies are reluctant to hire as they assess AI's long-term impact on staffing needs. At the same time, they are holding onto experienced employees who are crucial for implementing and integrating the new AI technologies, thus suppressing layoffs.

Companies are preemptively slowing hiring for roles they anticipate AI will automate within two years. This "quiet hiring freeze" avoids the cost of hiring, training, and then laying off staff. It is a subtle but powerful leading indicator of labor market disruption, happening long before official unemployment figures reflect the shift.

According to a Gallup poll, 59% of workers are ambivalent ('quiet quitting'). These roles, defined by rote tasks and best practices, are prime for AI automation. The 29% of engaged 'artisans' who operate with nuance at the edge of their fields are far more secure, as their work is not easily modeled.

The narrative "AI will take your job" is misleading. The reality is companies will replace employees who refuse to adopt AI with those who can leverage it for massive productivity gains. Non-adoption is a career-limiting choice.