Unlike traditional fiat FX where larger volumes get better pricing, crypto FX markets currently have the opposite dynamic. Spreads widen with size, making stablecoin-based FX hyper-efficient for smaller, startup-scale transactions but more expensive for massive institutional transfers.
The recent explosion of stablecoins wasn't due to a new financial innovation, but the maturation of underlying blockchain infrastructure. Cheaper and faster transactions on Layer 2 solutions and improved Layer 1s finally made large-scale, low-cost payments practical for real-world use.
The cost to convert local currencies into dollar-backed stablecoins often includes a premium over the official FX rate. This "stablecoin access premium" is highly correlated with FX volatility, suggesting the newer stablecoin market is already taking pricing cues from the larger, more mature FX market.
Instead of funding another stablecoin protocol, the more viable investment is in the tooling layer. This includes payment systems, SDKs, and accounting software (like triple-entry bookkeeping) that enable small businesses globally to integrate stablecoin payments into their existing fiat workflows.
The proliferation of local crypto exchanges in emerging markets has created robust, stablecoin-dominated trading environments. These function as highly efficient, alternative foreign exchange markets, enabling faster and cheaper cross-border value transfer than traditional rails.
The stablecoin market is mature, so new entrants cannot compete on technology alone. To succeed, they must be launched by an entity with a massive built-in user base, such as a social media giant or a large multinational, making standalone stablecoin startups effectively zeros.
Despite promising instant, cheap cross-border payments, stablecoins lack features critical for corporate treasurers. The absence of FDIC insurance, a single standard ("singleness of money"), and interoperability between blockchains makes them too risky and fragmented for wholesale use.
Before stablecoins, launching financial services in N countries required N² unique integrations. Now, companies can build on a single dollar-stablecoin standard and instantly operate globally. Adding other local stablecoins becomes a simple N-style addition, radically simplifying global expansion.
Data showing average stablecoin transaction sizes of only $11,000 to $14,000 indicates that current usage in emerging markets is not dominated by large-scale corporate payments. This points to a user base more focused on retail, smaller B2B, or crypto trading activities, rather than wholesale cross-border finance.
Contrary to the popular narrative, the dominant use case for stablecoins in emerging markets is not remittances or savings. Survey data suggests overwhelmingly (88% in one study) that they are used as an entry and exit point for the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, reframing their role in EM finance.
The high profits enjoyed by stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle are temporary. Major financial institutions (Visa, JPMorgan) will eventually launch their own stablecoins, not as primary profit centers, but as low-cost tools to acquire and retain customers. This will drive margins down for the entire industry.