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Trump's team appeared overly impressed by the red-carpet treatment in China. This public display of admiration ceded valuable "face" to Beijing without securing substantive concessions, a move that Chinese leadership would likely never reciprocate.
Issues of status and visual symbolism, like the 1793 British 'kowtow' debate, remain central to China's diplomatic protocol. This historical precedent informs how Xi Jinping strategically manages optics with President Trump to assert China's standing and project a specific narrative.
The recent lack of anti-China rhetoric from the Trump administration, including zero mentions at the State of the Union, is a deliberate tactical truce. The goal is to stabilize relations and create a favorable environment for an upcoming presidential summit with Xi Jinping, which the administration wants to be a major success.
Historically, the U.S. traded diplomatic form (e.g., pageantry) for substantive policy concessions from China. Trump's intense focus on receiving "face" flips this dynamic, allowing China to achieve its substantive goals—like buying time from U.S. pressure—at the low cost of theatrical praise.
Expectations for the Trump-Xi summit are so low that preventing a complete collapse of talks is considered a positive outcome. After nearly triggering a global recession, the primary goal is stability, not a "grand bargain." The mere act of meeting is significant, as it marks the first visit by a US leader in nearly a decade, reframing success as crisis management.
The Trump-Xi summit appeared successful because it carefully avoided substantive engagement on the most difficult issues like Taiwan and trade imbalances. By creating positive atmospherics and "kicking the can down the road" on intractable problems, both leaders could claim a victory without making real concessions.
Trump's strategy of publicly bullying and belittling allies backfires on the international stage. Unlike in domestic politics, sovereign nations have viable alternatives. This approach forces them to save face by aligning with rivals like China, even if it's not in their long-term best interest.
Trump's effusive expressions of respect and friendship towards Xi Jinping, while potentially synthetic, effectively leveraged the Chinese leadership's desire for "mutual respect." This personal approach created a positive atmosphere, serving as a transactional tool to smooth diplomatic interactions.
The personal dynamic between Trump and Xi is rooted in a similar psychological need for respect and even fawning from their counterparts. This mutual quest for admiration allowed them to connect on a personal level, smoothing over diplomatic tensions during their summit.
High-stakes meetings between US and Chinese leaders may focus more on projecting positive "mood music" than achieving concrete outcomes. For a US president needing a foreign policy win, China can offer the appearance of cooperation, such as promising future purchases, without making significant concessions on core security or technology issues.
A summit like the Trump-Xi meeting, which includes an entourage of top CEOs, is too high-profile to risk failure. Its primary purpose is likely ceremonial, designed to publicly ratify significant deals that have already been secretly negotiated to avoid political embarrassment and ensure a successful outcome.