The shift to AI creates an opening in every established software category (ERP, CRM, etc.). While incumbents are adding AI features, new AI-native startups have an advantage in winning over net-new, 'greenfield' customers who are choosing their first system of record.
Established SaaS firms avoid AI-native products because they operate at lower gross margins (e.g., 40%) compared to traditional software (80%+). This parallels brick-and-mortar retail's fatal hesitation with e-commerce, creating an opportunity for AI-native startups to capture the market by embracing different unit economics.
The new generation of AI automates workflows, acting as "teammates" for employees. This creates entirely new, greenfield markets focused on productivity gains for every individual, representing a TAM potentially 10x larger than the previous SaaS era, which focused on replacing existing systems of record.
Unlike the slow denial of SaaS by client-server companies, today's SaaS leaders (e.g., HubSpot, Notion) are rapidly integrating AI. They have an advantage due to vast proprietary data and existing distribution channels, making it harder for new AI-native startups to displace them. The old playbook of a slow incumbent may no longer apply.
Founders are stuck in a SaaS mindset, selling tools to existing service providers. The bigger opportunity is to build new, AI-first service companies (e.g., accounting, legal) that use AI to deliver a superior end-to-end solution directly to customers.
While AI can improve existing software categories, the most significant opportunity lies in creating new applications that automate tasks previously performed by humans. This 'software eating labor' market is substantially larger than the traditional SaaS market, representing a massive greenfield opportunity for startups.
AI-native companies find more success selling to new businesses or those hitting an inflection point (e.g., outgrowing QuickBooks). Trying to convince established companies to switch from deeply embedded systems like NetSuite is a much harder 'brownfield' battle with a higher cost of acquisition.
The current moment is ripe for building new horizontal software giants due to three converging paradigm shifts: a move to outcome-based pricing, AI completing end-to-end tasks as the new unit of value, and a shift from structured schemas to dynamic, unstructured data models.
Incumbents face the innovator's dilemma; they can't afford to scrap existing infrastructure for AI. Startups can build "AI-native" from a clean sheet, creating a fundamental advantage that legacy players can't replicate by just bolting on features.
The fundamental shift from AI isn't about replacing foundational model companies like OpenAI. Instead, AI creates a new technological substrate—productized intelligence—that will engender an entirely new breed of software companies, marking the end of the traditional SaaS playbook.
A 'tale of two cities' exists in SaaS. Traditional software budgets are frozen, with spending eaten by price hikes from incumbents. Simultaneously, new, separate AI budgets are creating massive opportunities, making the market feel dead for classic SaaS but booming for AI-native solutions.