As iPhone sales slowed around 2015, Apple's CFO reframed its story for Wall Street. By highlighting high-margin, recurring revenue from the App Store and iCloud, he convinced investors to value Apple like a SaaS company, dramatically increasing its price-to-earnings multiple from ~10x to ~40x.
The case of Netflix in 2016, with a P/E over 300, shows that high multiples can reflect a company strategically sacrificing short-term profits for global expansion. Instead of dismissing such stocks as expensive, investors should use second-order thinking to ask *why* the market is pricing in such high growth.
The key to accelerating from $1M to $10M in revenue was evolving the sales narrative. They moved from discussing technical details with CTOs to explaining business impact, like compliance and audit readiness, to non-technical buyers like Chief Compliance Officers and CFOs.
Investors and acquirers pay premiums for predictable revenue, which comes from retaining and upselling existing customers. This "expansion revenue" is a far greater value multiplier than simply acquiring new customers, a metric most founders wrongly prioritize.
Companies like Tesla and Oracle achieve massive valuations not through profits, but by capturing the dominant market story, such as becoming an "AI company." Investors should analyze a company's ability to create and own the next compelling narrative.
Traditional valuation multiples are increasingly misleading because GAAP rules expense intangible investments (R&D, brand building) rather than capitalizing them. For a company like Microsoft, properly capitalizing these investments can drop its P/E ratio from 35 to 30, revealing a more attractive valuation.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
Investors instinctively value the distant future cash flows of elite compounding businesses higher than traditional financial models suggest. This phenomenon, known as hyperbolic discounting, helps explain why these companies consistently command premium multiples, as the market behaves more aligned with this model than standard exponential discounting.
Recent acquisitions of slow-growth public SaaS companies are not just value grabs but turnaround plays. Acquirers believe these companies' distribution can be revitalized by injecting AI-native products, creating a path back to high growth and higher multiples.
Standard valuation models based on financial outputs (earnings, cash flow) are flawed because they ignore the most critical inputs: the CEO's value, brand strength, and company culture. These unquantifiable factors are the true drivers of long-term outperformance for companies like Apple.
High SaaS revenue multiples make buyouts too expensive for management teams. This contrasts with traditional businesses valued on lower EBITDA multiples, where buyouts are more common. The exception is for stable, low-growth SaaS companies where a deal might be structured with seller financing.