Data reveals an "inverted U-shape" for political and economic stability. Both strong democracies and full autocracies are relatively stable. The most dangerous and volatile environment for business and society is the “anocracy” in the middle, which suffers from lower growth, lower investment, and higher rates of violence.

The argument for term limits isn't just about constitutional law; it's a fundamental recognition of human psychology. Power corrupts, and leaders who stay too long become convinced only they are right. The system is designed to forcibly introduce new perspectives and prevent the slide into tyranny, regardless of a president's popularity.

Business leaders may see short-term benefits in aligning with an aspiring autocrat. However, this alliance is temporary. In Hungary, 15 years after Viktor Orbán took power, only 23% of the country's 50 wealthiest people remained on the list, as the regime moved to consolidate power by bankrupting or eliminating rivals.

What appear as organic 'color revolutions' are often the result of a highly developed, academic playbook. This field, known as 'democratization studies' or 'civil resistance,' is taught at major universities and provides a systematic, step-by-step guide for orchestrating political change from the bottom up.

Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.

Historian Anne Applebaum observes that significant US constitutional amendments often follow profound national traumas like the Revolution or the Civil War. This suggests that without a similar large-scale crisis, mustering the collective will to address deep-seated issues like systemic corruption is historically difficult, as there is no single moment of reckoning.

Figures like Donald Trump don't create populist movements; they rise by capitalizing on pre-existing societal problems like economic despair. Focusing on removing the leader ignores the root causes that allowed them to gain power, ensuring another similar figure will eventually emerge.

A recurring political pattern involves well-intentioned progressive policies being implemented without regard for practical consequences (e.g., border management). This creates a political vacuum and public frustration that the far-right exploits, leading to a severe, often cruel, overcorrection that dismantles both the flawed policy and underlying positive intentions.

A CIA task force analyzed 38 variables to predict political instability, including common assumptions like poverty and inequality. They found only two were highly predictive: 1) a country being a partial democracy, or “anocracy,” and 2) its political parties organizing around identity (race, religion) rather than ideology.