Despite legislative extensions, new investment in Opportunity Zones is effectively on hold. The initial designated areas are largely picked over, and the industry is now waiting for new maps to be released. This is not expected to happen until the end of 2026, creating a multi-year hiatus.
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Current real estate deliveries were financed in the 2020-22 low-rate era, causing a temporary supply glut in high-demand sectors like Sunbelt apartments. Since new construction halted in 2023, today's depressed prices offer a unique entry point before supply normalizes and rents can accelerate.
Landowners who have spent years navigating the grid interconnection process for projects like solar or wind are now pivoting. As they near approval, they repurpose their valuable grid connection rights for data centers, which can generate significantly higher financial returns than the originally planned energy projects.
While advocating for relaxed zoning, Mayor Lurie acknowledges it is not a silver bullet for housing affordability. He states that high interest rates, labor, and material costs are the primary blockers to new construction, meaning policy changes won't trigger immediate development or rent drops.
The difference in home price trends between US regions is not about weather or jobs, but housing supply. States in the South and West that permit widespread new construction are seeing prices fall, while "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) states in the Northeast and Midwest face shortages and rising prices.
Despite headlines about rapid-growth companies, the typical startup journey is slowing dramatically. The median time between Series A and B rounds is now close to 1,000 days (almost 3 years), creating a barbell market where a few companies raise quickly while the majority face a much longer path to their next milestone.
New rent control laws don't just limit rent; they fundamentally cap the equity upside for real estate investors. By limiting potential cash flow growth from an asset, these policies make building or upgrading apartment buildings less attractive. This discourages the very capital investment needed to solve the housing supply crisis.
While physical equipment lead times are long, the real trigger for unlocking the power sector supply chain is Big Tech signing long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). These contracts provide the financial certainty needed for generators, manufacturers, and investors to commit capital and expand capacity. The industry is waiting for Big Tech to make these moves.
While gaining traction, prediction markets are on a collision course with regulators. Their expansion into domains resembling sports betting is unsustainable without government oversight and revenue sharing. The current "lawless" phase, where they claim not to be gambling, is unlikely to last, leading to a stalled 2026.
M&A activity is not constant; it ebbs and flows with the political climate. Administrations perceived as "anti-M&A" can significantly slow deals. Founders looking for a strategic acquisition should consider the current political cycle as a key factor in their exit timing.
While rising rates caused a violent valuation drop in commercial real estate (CRE), they also choked off new development. This lack of new supply—a primary driver of winners and losers in CRE—creates a strong fundamental tailwind for 2026-2028, making the sector more stable than recent volatility suggests.
