The immediate aftermath of a nuclear strike isn't just a blast. It's a thermonuclear flash creating a massive firestorm, a bulldozing wind effect that levels buildings, and intense radiation, followed by a conflagration of mega-fires from thousands of simultaneous strikes.
The common analogy of AI to electricity is dangerously rosy. AI is more like fire: a transformative tool that, if mismanaged or weaponized, can spread uncontrollably with devastating consequences. This mental model better prepares us for AI's inherent risks and accelerating power.
The strategic advantage isn't fighting huge blazes, but extinguishing fires within the first 10-20 minutes when they are small and manageable. This prevents the exponential growth that leads to megafires, a concept often missed due to media's focus on large-scale disasters.
Contrary to popular imagery, spent nuclear fuel is a solid that is initially stored in deep pools of water. Water is such an effective radiation shield that trained divers can safely swim in the pools for maintenance. This highlights the managed safety of nuclear waste.
The 40-year plateau in nuclear power wasn't driven by public fear after incidents like Chernobyl, but by the soaring costs of building massive, one-off reactors. The modern push for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) aims to solve this fundamental economic problem through factory-based production.
The doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) relies on the threat of retaliation. However, once an enemy's nuclear missiles are in the air, that threat has failed. Sam Harris argues that launching a counter-strike at that point serves no strategic purpose and is a morally insane act of mass murder.
The true horror of nuclear war isn't the initial blast but the complete breakdown of society. With no government, law, or resources, survivors face a primal, violent struggle for existence amidst sickness and malnourishment, making immediate death a preferable fate.
Public fear focuses on AI hypothetically creating new nuclear weapons. The more immediate danger is militaries trusting highly inaccurate AI systems for critical command and control decisions over existing nuclear arsenals, where even a small error rate could be catastrophic.
In a nuclear winter scenario, soot would block the sun, causing global agricultural failure. Climate models from Professor Brian Toon indicate that only Australia and New Zealand would likely remain capable of sustaining agriculture, making them the only viable locations for long-term survival.
The Chernobyl nuclear disaster was only discovered by the West because an unusual southeasterly wind blew radiation toward Sweden. Had the wind blown in its normal direction, the Soviets might have concealed the incident indefinitely, potentially altering the timeline for the collapse of the USSR, which followed five years later.
For decades, electricity consumption was flat. Now, the massive energy demands of AI data centers are making clean, reliable, baseload power like nuclear an essential component of the energy grid, not just an option.