Tim Guinness identifies the biggest risk to asset management firms as disintermediation by platforms and wealth managers who can launch their own funds. To secure their future, he believes firms like his must evolve by moving into the platform and wealth management business to own the end-customer relationship.

Blackstone's model for its insurance business is to act solely as a third-party asset manager, not to own a captive insurance balance sheet. This avoids competing with their clients and allows insurers to access specialized origination and portfolio management expertise that is difficult to replicate in-house.

The Outsourced CIO (OCIO) model has evolved through three phases. After a governance-focused start (Phase 1) and a period where simple beta portfolios thrived (Phase 2), the current environment of lower expected returns and higher inflation (Phase 3) demands a true "alpha engine." Execution quality and customization are now the key differentiators.

Asset managers with $500 billion to $2 trillion in assets are particularly vulnerable to consolidation. They are often too complex to be nimble yet lack the massive scale of top-tier firms, making them prime M&A candidates to bolster capabilities and generate cost efficiencies in a competitive landscape.

The dominance of low-cost index funds means active managers cannot compete in liquid, efficient markets. Survival depends on creating strategies in areas Vanguard can't easily replicate, such as illiquid micro-caps, niche geographies, or complex sectors that require specialized data and analysis.

Exposing the enormous fees paid to external managers forces asset owner boards to ask, "Is there another way?" This transparency is the key driver that prompts them to consider the strategic benefits of building internal investment teams.

Expect more acquisitions of VC firms by large asset managers. The strategic driver isn't just AUM, but the ability to apply cutting-edge AI and tech from the VC portfolio to accelerate growth and EBITDA in their traditional private equity-owned industrial and consumer companies.

Outsourcing fund administration allows a PE firm to scale operations instantly. Launching a new fund is as simple as notifying the administrator, who already has the staff. This avoids the HR burdens, hiring delays, and capacity constraints an internal team faces, effectively acting as a cloud-based back office.

The key question for institutions isn't "how do we access the best managers?" but "what is unique about us that facilitates privileged access to assets or managers?" This shifts the focus from picking to leveraging inherent advantages.