Recognizing the friction in accessing private markets, Apollo spent $1 billion from its balance sheet on wealth tech. This strategic investment aims to improve the underlying infrastructure for the entire industry, acknowledging that a better ecosystem benefits all participants, not just themselves.

Future Standard's predecessor, Franklin Square, first built an incredible distribution engine selling third-party products to the wealth channel. Only after mastering distribution did it pivot to building its own "content"—in-house asset management capabilities—mirroring Netflix's evolution from DVDs to original programming.

Asset managers with $500 billion to $2 trillion in assets are particularly vulnerable to consolidation. They are often too complex to be nimble yet lack the massive scale of top-tier firms, making them prime M&A candidates to bolster capabilities and generate cost efficiencies in a competitive landscape.

Top-tier VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz are evolving beyond traditional venture investing. They are mirroring the playbook of private equity giants like Blackstone by acquiring other asset managers, expanding into new verticals like wealth management, and preparing to go public, prioritizing AUM growth.

The dominance of low-cost index funds means active managers cannot compete in liquid, efficient markets. Survival depends on creating strategies in areas Vanguard can't easily replicate, such as illiquid micro-caps, niche geographies, or complex sectors that require specialized data and analysis.

A major driver for M&A is the increasing scarcity of growth opportunities. Asset owners and intermediaries are actively consolidating providers, planning to reduce the number of asset managers they work with by up to a third, forcing firms to merge to secure their place and access growth.

Increased retail access to alternatives helps level the playing field between individual and institutional investors. However, capturing this opportunity favors large, scaled managers like Blackstone and Apollo who can afford brand marketing and distribution. This dynamic accelerates industry consolidation, widening the gap between mega-firms and smaller managers.

Dalio envisions a future where AI platforms provide sophisticated tools directly to individual portfolio managers, much like Uber's technology empowers individual drivers. This will enable talented managers to operate independently, challenging the current multi-strat model that aggregates PMs within one firm.

Deal-making is evolving beyond same-sector acquisitions. A key trend is "intersector" consolidation, where asset managers acquire wealth or insurance firms. This strategic move aims to control a larger portion of the value chain, bringing the asset manager closer to the end client.