Ben Thompson's analysis suggests the era of siloed SaaS growth is over. With AI enabling infinite software creation, companies will be forced to attack adjacent business functions to grow. This shifts the market from collaborative expansion to a competitive battle for existing customer spend, with AI model providers as the key "arms dealers."
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AI is becoming the new UI, allowing users to generate bespoke interfaces for specific workflows on the fly. This fundamentally threatens the core value proposition of many SaaS companies, which is essentially selling a complex UX built on a database. The entire ecosystem will need to adapt.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
The challenge for SaaS isn't simply adding an AI agent. Growth is attacked by shrinking workforces (seat contraction), CIO budgets shifting to AI, and aggressive price hikes that eliminate upsell opportunities. This combination makes returning to the high-growth, high-NRR days of the past unlikely.
The primary threat of Large Language Models to the SaaS industry isn't that they will build better software, but that they will enable the creation of 50 to 100 competitors for every existing player. This massive increase in competition will inevitably compress profit margins for everyone.
The cloud era created a fragmented landscape of single-purpose SaaS tools, leading to enterprise fatigue. AI enables unified platforms to perform these specialized tasks, creating a massive consolidation wave and disrupting the niche application market.
For over a decade, SaaS products remained relatively unchanged, allowing PE firms to acquire them and profit from high NRR. AI destroys this model. The rate of product change is now unprecedented, meaning products can't be static, introducing a technology risk that PE models are not built for.
The lucrative maintenance and migration revenue streams for enterprise SaaS, which constitute up to 90% of software dollars, are under threat. AI agents and new systems are poised to aggressively shrink this market, severely impacting public SaaS companies' incremental revenue.
Countering the idea of a zero-sum SaaS market, Box CEO Aaron Levie argues that AI agents create net-new value. By performing complex knowledge work on existing data (like analyzing contracts), agents allow software platforms to capture budget previously allocated to human labor, thus expanding the total addressable market.
The fundamental shift from AI isn't about replacing foundational model companies like OpenAI. Instead, AI creates a new technological substrate—productized intelligence—that will engender an entirely new breed of software companies, marking the end of the traditional SaaS playbook.
To succeed in the AI era, SaaS companies cannot just add AI features. They must undergo a 'brutal' transformation, changing everything from their org chart and GTM strategy to their core metrics and pricing model. This is a non-negotiable, foundational shift.
