In a bull market, it's hard to tell if a GP is skilled or just lucky. A downturn reveals their true discipline regarding valuations, capital deployment speed, and how they support founders through down rounds, providing LPs with robust underwriting data.

Oren Zeev observes that it's much harder for funds to raise capital today. Not only is there less money flowing into venture, but a larger portion is going to established platform funds. He predicts that at least 50% of current VC funds will be unable to raise their next fund and will slowly die.

Many sub-$500M venture funds are over-invested and under-reserved. While venture capitalists like Josh Wolfe predict a 50% failure rate for these "minnows," the Limited Partners (LPs) who fund them are even more bearish, believing the involuntary extinction rate will be closer to 90%.

LPs are concentrating capital into a few trusted mega-firms, leading to oversubscribed rounds for top players. Simultaneously, a decline in deal formation and liquidity is causing a potential 30-50% "extinction rate" for smaller, emerging managers who are unable to raise subsequent funds.

The seed investing landscape isn't just expanding; it's actively replacing its previous generation. Legacy boutique seed firms are being squeezed by large multistage funds and new emerging managers, implying a VC's relevance has a 10-15 year cycle before a new cohort takes over.

The inability to return capital to LPs constrains new fundraising, creating an environment that cannot support the thousands of PE funds operating today. This will trigger a shakeout of weaker GPs, while the top 10 funds, already capturing 36% of capital, further consolidate their dominance.

The AI boom is masking a broader trend: venture fundraising is at its lowest in 10 years. The 2021-22 period created an unsustainable number of new, small funds. Now, both LPs and founders are favoring established, long-term firms, causing capital to re-concentrate and the total number of funds to shrink.

The venture capital landscape is bifurcating. Large, multi-stage funds leverage scale and network, while small, boutique funds win with deep domain expertise. Mid-sized generalist funds lack a clear competitive edge and risk getting squeezed out by these two dominant models.

With fund lifecycles stretching well beyond the traditional 10 years, LPs are increasingly seeking liquidity through secondary sales. This trend isn't just a sign of pressure but a necessary market evolution to manage illiquid, long-duration assets.