The central geopolitical and economic conflict of the modern era revolves around the control of semiconductor chips and fabrication plants (fabs). These have surpassed oil as the most critical strategic resource, dictating technological and military superiority.
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The strategic competition with China is often viewed through a high-tech military lens, but its true power lies in dominating the low-tech supply chain. China can cripple other economies by simply withholding basic components like nuts, bolts, and screws, proving that industrial basics are a key geopolitical weapon.
While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.
Beyond the well-known semiconductor race, the AI competition is shifting to energy. China's massive, cheaper electricity production is a significant, often overlooked strategic advantage. This redefines the AI landscape, suggesting that superiority in atoms (energy) may become as crucial as superiority in bytes (algorithms and chips).
The Nexperia dispute reveals China's strategic leverage. By controlling the supply of mid-tech chips for basic car functions like airbags and windows, Beijing can cripple major European automakers, demonstrating its influence over global supply chains beyond just high-end tech.
Taiwan's TSMC dominates advanced chip manufacturing not only through technical excellence but also its business model. By acting as a pure-play foundry that doesn't compete with its clients (unlike Intel or Samsung), it fostered unique trust and partnerships, making it the central hub of the semiconductor ecosystem and a critical geopolitical asset.
Contrary to advocating for a full embargo, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues that selling advanced chips to China is strategically advantageous for the US. His thesis is that creating technological dependency on American hardware is a more powerful long-term lever than allowing China to become self-sufficient with domestic champions.
China's semiconductor strategy is not merely to reverse-engineer Western technology like ASML's. It's a well-funded "primacy race" to develop novel, AI-driven lithography systems. This approach aims to create superior, not just parallel, manufacturing capabilities to gain global economic leverage.
While the West may lead in AI models, China's key strategic advantage is its ability to 'embody' AI in hardware. Decades of de-industrialization in the U.S. have left a gap, while China's manufacturing dominance allows it to integrate AI into cars, drones, and robots at a scale the West cannot currently match.
The 2020 research formalizing AI's "scaling laws" was the key turning point for policymakers. It provided mathematical proof that AI capabilities scaled predictably with computing power, solidifying the conviction that compute, not data, was the critical resource to control in U.S.-China competition.
Despite escalating rhetoric, the U.S. and China are unlikely to fully decouple their supply chains. Their relationship is maintained by a fragile equilibrium where the U.S. provides semiconductor chips in exchange for China's critical rare earth minerals, making a return to the status quo the most probable outcome.
