The historical Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) provides a governance model for AI. Scientists like Oppenheimer served as influential advisors but did not issue licenses directly. This separates expert advisory from regulatory implementation, which can be handled by a broader pool of qualified technical staff, mitigating conflicts of interest.

The only viable path for AI regulation is to treat it as a dual-use technology, similar to nuclear energy. Governments must clearly delineate and control 'weapons-grade' AI while fostering innovation in 'civilian use' AI. A failure to do so risks either falling behind in a global arms race or allowing dangerous capabilities to proliferate.

The US and USSR, despite being adversaries, collaborated to prevent nuclear proliferation to rogue actors. A similar model can be applied to AI. The US and China share an interest in preventing powerful open-weight models from being used for cyber-attacks or bio-terrorism by third parties, creating a foundation for a safety dialogue.

For a blueprint on AI governance, look to Cold War-era geopolitics, not just tech history. The 1967 UN Outer Space Treaty, which established cooperation between the US and Soviet Union, shows that global compromise on new frontiers is possible even amidst intense rivalry. It provides a model for political, not just technical, solutions.

A global AI safety regime should learn from nuclear arms control by focusing on the physical infrastructure that enables strategic capabilities. Instead of just seeking promises, it should aim to control access to chokepoints like advanced chip manufacturing and the massive data centers required for frontier models.

The same governments pushing AI competition for a strategic edge may be forced into cooperation. As AI democratizes access to catastrophic weapons (CBRN), the national security risk will become so great that even rival superpowers will have a mutual incentive to create verifiable safety treaties.

Despite intense geopolitical rivalry in the AI race, the failure of the U.S. and China to cooperate on AI safety poses a catastrophic risk. Experts warn that without joint guardrails and arms control for AI-powered weapons, unchecked competition could lead to dystopian outcomes for civilization.

The belief that AI development is unstoppable ignores history. Global treaties successfully limited nuclear proliferation, phased out ozone-depleting CFCs, and banned blinding lasers. These precedents prove that coordinated international action can steer powerful technologies away from the worst outcomes.

Despite intense technological competition, both the U.S. and China face a common threat from non-state actors like terrorist or criminal groups acquiring powerful AI models. This shared vulnerability presents a potential opportunity for cooperation on AI regulation and safeguards, even amid broader strategic rivalry.