Like the dot-com era, many overvalued AI startups will fail. However, this is distinct from the underlying technology. Artificial intelligence itself is a fundamental, irreversible shift that will permanently change the world, similar to how the internet and social media became globally dominant despite early market bubbles.

Technologists often have a narrow vision for their creations. Thomas Edison believed the phonograph's primary use would be for listening to religious sermons, not jazz music. This history demonstrates that inventors' predictions about their technology's impact should be met with deep skepticism.

Intel's team viewed their first microprocessor as an incremental improvement for building calculators, not a world-changing invention. The true revolution was sparked by outsiders who applied the technology in unforeseen ways, like building the first personal computers. This highlights that creators often cannot predict the true impact of their inventions.

Instead of defaulting to skepticism and looking for reasons why something won't work, the most productive starting point is to imagine how big and impactful a new idea could become. After exploring the optimistic case, you can then systematically address and mitigate the risks.

The mechanically superior clock was ignored for 200 years while the rudimentary hourglass thrived. This was because society valued approximate time, not precision. A technology's potential remains invisible and unharnessed until a culture's value system shifts to appreciate what that technology offers.

Major tech successes often emerge from iterating on an initial concept. Twitter evolved from the podcasting app Odeo, and Instagram from the check-in app Burbn. This shows that the act of building is a discovery process for the winning idea, which is rarely the first one.

The PC revolution was sparked by thousands of hobbyists experimenting with cheap microprocessors in garages. True innovation waves are distributed and permissionless. Today's AI, dominated by expensive, proprietary models from large incumbents, may stifle this crucial experimentation phase, limiting its revolutionary potential.

Success isn't linear. Mobile gaming giant Supercell didn't start with mobile games, and drone delivery firm ZipLine began with a robotic toy. This shows that foundational failures in one area can be the necessary learning experiences that lead to market-defining success in another.

Consumer innovation arrives in predictable waves after major technological shifts. The browser created Amazon and eBay; mobile created Uber and Instagram. The current AI platform shift is creating the same conditions for a new, massive wave of consumer technology companies.