Russia's interests are served by an isolated Iran that doesn't compete in European gas markets or its Central Asian sphere of influence. In contrast, China would gain from a stable, economically powerful Iran that can maximize its energy output and open its large market to global commerce.

While Venezuela is a minor oil supplier to China, Iran is a substantial source of crude and heavy oil used for infrastructure projects like asphalt. A regime change in Iran could lead to the country selling its oil to the West instead of China, creating a significant economic and geopolitical destabilization for Beijing.

The recent conflicts in Iran and Venezuela can be framed as a covert economic war against China. Since China buys 90% of Iran's oil and relies on Venezuela's supply, US actions disrupting these nations directly target China's energy security and serve as a tool of economic containment.

Protests in Iran, if they disrupt the regime, could halt cheap oil flows to China. This would force China to buy from more expensive, US-friendly markets, strengthening the US dollar's global dominance and isolating anti-Western powers without direct US intervention.

While Venezuela was a key oil supplier and geopolitical asset, it was also seen as a failed investment ("money gone to waste"). Iran, by contrast, is a core strategic partner in China's "axis of ill will" against U.S. influence. A regime collapse in Iran would be a far more significant blow to China's global strategy.

The public threats of a military strike against Iran may be a high-stakes negotiating tactic, consistent with Trump's style of creating chaos before seeking a deal. The goal is likely not war, which would be politically damaging, but to force Iran into economic concessions or a new agreement on US terms.

The US is disrupting China's oil supply from Iran and Venezuela (which accounts for ~20% of its imports) to gain a stronger negotiating position ahead of major talks. This frames the conflict as a geopolitical chess move rather than just a regional issue.

U.S. foreign policy actions against Venezuela and Iran are not primarily about democracy but are strategic moves to disrupt the flow of cheap, sanctioned oil to China. By controlling these sources, the U.S. can directly attack a key adversary's economic and military engine.

The main driver for US action against Iran is to stabilize the Gulf region to secure over $2 trillion in investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, making the threat from Iran an existential economic one.