To build confidence in AI's ability to forecast the future, researchers are training "historical LLMs" on data ending in a specific year, like 1930. They then test the model's ability to predict text from a later period, like 1940. This process of historical validation helps calibrate and improve models predicting our own future.

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A core debate in AI is whether LLMs, which are text prediction engines, can achieve true intelligence. Critics argue they cannot because they lack a model of the real world. This prevents them from making meaningful, context-aware predictions about future events—a limitation that more data alone may not solve.

In a 2018 interview, OpenAI's Greg Brockman described their foundational training method: ingesting thousands of books with the sole task of predicting the next word. This simple predictive objective was the key that unlocked complex, generalizable language understanding in their models.

The current limitation of LLMs is their stateless nature; they reset with each new chat. The next major advancement will be models that can learn from interactions and accumulate skills over time, evolving from a static tool into a continuously improving digital colleague.

Instead of a single, general AI model that can lose context during a complex task, Protoboost uses eight distinct agents trained on specific datasets (e.g., market analysis, user needs). This architectural choice ensures each step of the validation process is more accurate and trustworthy.

To automate trend analysis, the speaker built a system using chained AIs. The first AI analyzes and synthesizes trends from expert newsletters. A second AI is then used to validate the first AI's output, creating a more robust and reliable final result than a single model could produce.

AI struggles with long-horizon tasks not just due to technical limits, but because we lack good ways to measure performance. Once effective evaluations (evals) for these capabilities exist, researchers can rapidly optimize models against them, accelerating progress significantly.

As benchmarks become standard, AI labs optimize models to excel at them, leading to score inflation without necessarily improving generalized intelligence. The solution isn't a single perfect test, but continuously creating new evals that measure capabilities relevant to real-world user needs.

To ensure their AI model wasn't just luckily finding effective drug delivery peptides, researchers intentionally tested sequences the model predicted would perform poorly (negative controls). When these predictions were experimentally confirmed, it proved the model had genuinely learned the underlying chemical principles and was not just overfitting.

The critical challenge in AI development isn't just improving a model's raw accuracy but building a system that reliably learns from its mistakes. The gap between an 85% accurate prototype and a 99% production-ready system is bridged by an infrastructure that systematically captures and recycles errors into high-quality training data.

To improve LLM reasoning, researchers feed them data that inherently contains structured logic. Training on computer code was an early breakthrough, as it teaches patterns of reasoning far beyond coding itself. Textbooks are another key source for building smaller, effective models.