Contrary to the prevailing wisdom of staying private as long as possible, VC Keith Rabois counsels his portfolio companies to pursue an IPO once they hit ~$50 million in predictable revenue. He believes the benefits of being public outweigh the costs much earlier than most founders think.

Top-tier private companies like Stripe and Databricks are actively choosing to delay IPOs, viewing the public market as an inferior "product." With access to cheaper private capital and freedom from quarterly scrutiny and activist investors, staying private offers a better environment to build long-term value.

The public markets offer a unique advantage over staying private indefinitely: discipline during transitions. Daily stock prices and investor scrutiny force management to confront hard truths and balance growth, profitability, and innovation. As seen with Netflix's pivot to streaming, this pressure is crucial for realigning employee incentives and making tough capital decisions during strategic shifts.

While the dot-com bubble chased nascent internet delivery, Netflix's contrarian thesis was that the internet wasn't ready. They used DVDs-by-mail as a transitional distribution network to build a massive customer base and brand, creating a moat while waiting for streaming technology to mature.

Venture capitalist Bruce Booth explains that bankers, lawyers, audit firms, and VCs all have strong financial incentives for a company to go public. This creates systemic pressure that may not align with the company's best long-term interests.

Reed Hastings' bet wasn't that DVDs would definitely succeed, but that if they did, it would create a market disruption. Legacy players like Blockbuster couldn't serve the niche early adopter market, providing the opening Netflix needed to establish itself.

Beyond massive upfront investment and high failure rates, the most uncontrollable risk in a blockbuster strategy is timing, or luck. A revolutionary product launched before the market is ready for it is functionally a failure, regardless of its quality or innovation.

Reed Hastings argues producing original content was a conventional strategy. Netflix's real innovation was building a global, direct-to-consumer platform instead of licensing content country-by-country. This move was seen as ludicrous but created a massive competitive advantage.

Facing the dot-com crash, Reed Hastings' team approached Blockbuster, hoping to be acquired and become their digital arm. They lacked confidence and felt desperate, showing that even future giants can see acquisition as a desirable outcome in their early, uncertain years.