Human intuition is a poor gauge of AI's actual productivity benefits. A study found developers felt significantly sped up by AI coding tools even when objective measurements showed no speed increase. The real value may come from enabling tasks that otherwise wouldn't be attempted, rather than simply accelerating existing workflows.
The best barometer for AI's enterprise value is not replacing the bottom 5% of workers. A better goal is empowering most employees to become 10x more productive. This reframes the AI conversation from a cost-cutting tool to a massive value-creation engine through human-AI partnership.
Once AI coding agents reach a high performance level, objective benchmarks become less important than a developer's subjective experience. Like a warrior choosing a sword, the best tool is often the one that has the right "feel," writes code in a preferred style, and integrates seamlessly into a human workflow.
Block's CTO quantifies the impact of their internal AI agent, Goose. AI-forward engineering teams save 8-10 hours weekly, a figure he considers the absolute baseline. He notes, "this is the worst it will ever be," suggesting exponential gains are coming.
The most significant productivity gains come from applying AI to every stage of development, including research, planning, product marketing, and status updates. Limiting AI to just code generation misses the larger opportunity to automate the entire engineering process.
Increased developer productivity from AI won't lead to fewer jobs. Instead, it mirrors the Jevons paradox seen with electricity: as building software becomes cheaper and faster, the demand for it will dramatically increase. This boosts investment in new projects and ultimately grows the entire software engineering industry.
Traditionally, engineers need long, uninterrupted blocks to achieve flow state. By managing context and generating code, AI helps engineers get into flow faster. This makes shorter, 45-minute work blocks viable and productive again, restructuring the ideal engineering workday.
Research highlights "work slop": AI output that appears polished but lacks human context. This forces coworkers to spend significant time fixing it, effectively offloading cognitive labor and damaging perceptions of the sender's capability and trustworthiness.
At Block, the most surprising impact of AI hasn't been on engineers, but on non-technical staff. Teams like enterprise risk management now use AI agents to build their own software tools, compressing weeks of work into hours and bypassing the need to wait for internal engineering teams.
AI tools can generate vast amounts of verbose code on command, making metrics like 'lines of code' easily gameable and meaningless for measuring true engineering productivity. This practice introduces complexity and technical debt rather than indicating progress.
As AI generates more code, the core engineering task evolves from writing to reviewing. Developers will spend significantly more time evaluating AI-generated code for correctness, style, and reliability, fundamentally changing daily workflows and skill requirements.