In 1996, Nike paid an "insane" $40M for an unproven Tiger Woods. This seemingly overvalued bet paid off brilliantly because they were buying true, generational greatness. This mirrors buying "overvalued" stocks that go on to dominate their industries for decades.
The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, made the bulk of his net worth from a single stock: Geico. This concentrated, long-term holding of a compounding business directly contradicted his famous principles of broad diversification and selling assets once they reach intrinsic value, highlighting the power of selective flexibility.
The case of Netflix in 2016, with a P/E over 300, shows that high multiples can reflect a company strategically sacrificing short-term profits for global expansion. Instead of dismissing such stocks as expensive, investors should use second-order thinking to ask *why* the market is pricing in such high growth.
Investors value Skims at five times its annual sales, a multiple 2.5 times higher than Nike's. This premium reflects confidence in the brand's high growth, cultural relevance, and potential to dominate multiple categories beyond apparel, from loungewear to beauty.
Companies like Tesla and Oracle achieve massive valuations not through profits, but by capturing the dominant market story, such as becoming an "AI company." Investors should analyze a company's ability to create and own the next compelling narrative.
Stocks with the strongest fundamentals (top dog, sustainable advantage, great management) are often labeled "overvalued" by commentators. Gardner argues this perception is actually the ultimate buy signal, as the market consistently underestimates the long-term potential of true greatness.
Buffett strategically used Berkshire's and Coca-Cola's inflated stock prices as currency to acquire Gen Re. This swapped his overvalued equity risk for Gen Re's stable bond portfolio, which acted as a ballast and protected Berkshire during the subsequent market crash. He allowed the deal to be publicly perceived as a mistake, masking its strategic genius.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
Investors instinctively value the distant future cash flows of elite compounding businesses higher than traditional financial models suggest. This phenomenon, known as hyperbolic discounting, helps explain why these companies consistently command premium multiples, as the market behaves more aligned with this model than standard exponential discounting.
The best investment deals are not deeply discounted, low-quality items like "unsellable teal crocodile loafers." Instead, they are the rare, high-quality assets that seldom come on sale. For investors, the key is to have the conviction and preparedness to act decisively when these infrequent opportunities appear.
According to Ken Griffin, legendary investors aren't just right more often. Their key trait is having deep clarity on their specific competitive advantage and the conviction to bet heavily on it. Equally important is the discipline to unemotionally cut losses when wrong and simply move on.