Russia perceives itself as having momentum and believes its military position will strengthen in the coming months. This confidence removes any urgency to negotiate or make significant concessions, making it the most significant impediment to ending the conflict.

Russia has transformed its economy to be dependent on war production. Peace would bring back radicalized soldiers, risking a military coup. This creates a powerful incentive for Putin to maintain the conflict, making a peaceful resolution more complex and dangerous for Europe.

In intense conflicts, short-term ceasefires are frequently a strategic maneuver rather than a genuine move towards peace. While peace talks are publicly highlighted, both sides often use the downtime to rebuild their arsenals and rest their forces, making the truce a tool of war itself.

Putin's history shows a reliable pattern: he appears cooperative and makes agreements, only to later act in his own self-interest. To predict his moves in conflicts like the Ukraine war, one must analyze this long-term behavioral pattern rather than his current statements or gestures.

To predict a leader's actions, disregard their words and even individual actions. Instead, focus on their consistent, long-term pattern of behavior. For Putin, the pattern is using negotiations as a stalling tactic to advance a fixed agenda, making him an unreliable partner for peace deals based on stated intentions.

Putin's desire to continue the war outweighs any potential benefits offered in negotiations. This persistence is not based on a reasonable assessment of the situation but on sunk costs, personal legacy, and a belief that Russia's sheer will can outlast Western support.

The proposed peace plan negotiated by private business figures asks Ukraine to cede heavily fortified territory that Russia has failed to capture despite years of fighting and immense casualties. This is not a peace deal but a demand for surrender that rewards Russian aggression by effectively giving away strategic land for free.

The war has transformed Russia's economy and military. A peace deal could unleash a battle-hardened, radicalized army, giving Putin an incentive to maintain the war footing and seek further incursions into Europe to avoid domestic disruption.

Leaked communications reveal a conscious strategy to manipulate Donald Trump in negotiations. By advising Russian counterparts to begin calls by praising Trump's past deals, negotiators like Witkoff leverage his psychological vulnerabilities to steer conversations toward a favorable outcome.