In geopolitics, clinging to a righteous cause you cannot win by force often means grinding your own people into poverty for decades. The logical, albeit difficult, response is to make concessions and focus on improving citizens' lives, rather than insisting on being 'right' while they suffer.

Despite ideological or religious motivations, sustained conflict is impossible without economic support. Even highly motivated groups cannot fight without money to buy weapons and maintain their infrastructure, revealing economics as the fundamental, inescapable driver of global power dynamics and war.

The war in Ukraine established a grim precedent for the secondary effects of conflict on the global food supply. It is estimated that more people died from hunger in East Africa due to the war's disruption than died on the battlefield itself, highlighting the massive humanitarian stakes of current and future geopolitical crises.

In intense conflicts, short-term ceasefires are frequently a strategic maneuver rather than a genuine move towards peace. While peace talks are publicly highlighted, both sides often use the downtime to rebuild their arsenals and rest their forces, making the truce a tool of war itself.

The M23's control of Goma has created superficial order, with cleaner streets and organized transport. However, this veneer of stability masks a dire reality: a collapsed economy with closed banks, severe human rights abuses including forced recruitment, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Ideology and allegiance are luxuries that disappear when basic needs aren't met. When economic hardship prevents people from feeding their families, they will quickly abandon political loyalties to solve their immediate problems, which can create a powerful force for revolution.

Disruptions to key trade routes, which spike fertilizer prices and jam food supply chains, act as a 'slow motion famine machine'. Historically, from the French Revolution to the Arab Spring, such sharp increases in food insecurity and prices have been a primary catalyst for riots, revolution, and widespread political instability, creating a vicious 'conflict trap'.

The West's five-year strategy of using sanctions, reduced aid, and frozen assets to pressure the Taliban into moderation has not worked. This failure is forcing a reluctant strategic shift, with countries now engaging on issues like migration and counter-terrorism out of necessity.

Economic uncertainty and anxiety are the root causes of political violence. When governments devalue currency through inflation and amass huge debts, they create the stressful conditions that history shows consistently lead to civil unrest.