The two dominant powers, Rome and Persia, engaged in a decades-long, civilization-shattering war that left both empires fiscally and militarily broken. This created a massive power vacuum, allowing newly unified Arab tribes to expand with astonishing speed into unguarded territories.
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The dynamic between a rising power (China) and a ruling one (the U.S.) fits the historical pattern of the "Thucydides' trap." In 12 of the last 16 instances of this scenario, the confrontation has ended in open war, suggesting that a peaceful resolution is the exception, not the rule.
Historically, Russia and China's strategy as continental empires involves avoiding two-front wars and actively destabilizing neighboring states. This creates buffer zones and prevents any single power from becoming a threat on their borders, ensuring their own security through regional instability.
Historically, rising and ruling powers don't stumble into war directly. Instead, their heightened distrust creates a tinderbox where a seemingly minor incident involving a third party (like the assassination in Sarajevo pre-WWI) can escalate uncontrollably into a catastrophic conflict.
Societal decline doesn't have to be a painful collapse. A wealthy culture can enjoy a long, comfortable "sunset period" by remaining open to importing technologies, ideas, and services from rising powers. The Byzantium Empire's 1000-year decline was sustained this way. The alternative is isolation and rapid decay.
External shocks like wars or plagues don't destroy golden ages directly. The real danger is the subsequent societal shift from an open, exploratory "Athenian" outlook to a closed, protectionist "Spartan" one. This fear-based mentality stifles the innovation required for regeneration, leading to decline.
Unlike Western Europe, where power was decentralized, Constantinople's strategic location naturally encouraged centralization. Its geographic dominance was so profound that it shaped both the Byzantine and Ottoman empires into highly centralized states, a rarity for the pre-modern world.
Dara Khosrowshahi theorizes the Shah of Iran's regime collapsed because he modernized too fast, focused excessively on military power over industrial growth, and failed to bring along rural populations and integrate Islam into his vision, creating a power vacuum for the Islamic regime to exploit.
Current instability is not unique to one country but part of a global pattern. This mirrors historical "crisis centuries" (like the 17th) where civil wars, plagues, and economic turmoil occurred simultaneously across different civilizations, driven by similar underlying variables.
Faced with the shocking rise of the Arab Empire, Byzantines questioned if their use of religious icons was angering God. The success of the aniconic Arabs suggested that adopting a stricter, image-free worship might be the key to divine favor and military survival.
The recent uptick in global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Caribbean, is not a series of isolated events. It's a direct result of adversaries perceiving American weakness and acting on the historical principle that nations expand their influence until they are met with sufficient counter-force.
