While societal decline can be a long, slow process, it can unravel rapidly. The tipping point is when the outside world loses confidence in a nation's core institutions, such as its legal system or central bank. This triggers a sudden flight of capital, talent, and investment, drastically accelerating the collapse.

Instead of a total ban, a more strategic approach is to "slow ball" an adversary like China by providing them with just enough technology. This keeps them dependent on foreign suppliers and disincentivizes the massive state investment required to develop their own superior, independent solutions.

The U.S. is more likely to follow Argentina's path: currency inflation, populist policies funded by deficit spending, and an eventual economic collapse leading to a century of stagnation. This is a more insidious threat than a dramatic revolution.

China's economic ascent began when Deng Xiaoping invited American experts to teach them about capitalism. This strategy, combined with becoming the world's manufacturing hub, allowed them to learn the system, grow strong quietly, and eventually become a dominant global power.

For generations, increasing wealth allowed Western society to discard essential cultural norms like social trust and shared values. Now that economic growth is faltering, the catastrophic consequences of this "death of culture" are becoming fully visible.

External shocks like wars or plagues don't destroy golden ages directly. The real danger is the subsequent societal shift from an open, exploratory "Athenian" outlook to a closed, protectionist "Spartan" one. This fear-based mentality stifles the innovation required for regeneration, leading to decline.

Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, which ignited China’s growth, were based on adopting American free-market principles like private enterprise and foreign capital. China’s success stemmed from decentralizing its economy, the very system the U.S. is now tempted to abandon for a more centralized model.

Beyond raw materials, China's national ambition is to achieve near-total self-sufficiency. The prevailing mood is that there is "nothing for which it wants to rely on foreigners a single day longer than it has to." This philosophy of aggressive import substitution signals a fundamental break with the logic of reciprocal global trade.

Attempting to hoard technology like a state secret is counterproductive for the US. The nation's true competitive advantage has always been its open society, which enables broad participation and bottom-up innovation. Competing effectively, especially in AI, means leaning into this openness, not trying to emulate closed, top-down systems.