The U.S. wields significant economic leverage over China by disrupting its access to cheap oil from Iran and Venezuela. This control over a critical resource, representing roughly 38% of China's supply, acts as a powerful negotiating chip that forces China to engage.

The idea that US energy independence provides insulation from a global crisis is a fallacy. Markets are global. The only way to decouple US prices would be to enact export controls, which would ironically disrupt domestic markets, lead to production shut-ins, and ultimately fail to prevent economic damage from a global price shock.

A US oil export ban seems logical during a crisis, but it's counterproductive. American refineries are primarily configured for heavier crude oil, while the US shale revolution produces lighter crude that must be exported. Not all oil is fungible, making global trade essential for domestic refining.

Banning US oil exports would reduce the global supply of dollars needed to purchase those commodities. This decline in demand for dollars could cause the currency to fall, creating unintended domestic inflation and risking destabilizing capital outflows from US assets.

The US primarily produces light crude oil, but its refineries are configured for heavier crude. The country exports its light crude and imports heavy crude to match its refining capacity. An export ban would create a massive mismatch and strand domestic production.

While banning US oil exports would initially crash domestic prices, it would quickly cause an overflow of products like diesel in the Gulf Coast. Refineries would then be forced to cut production, ultimately creating shortages of other fuels like gasoline on the East Coast and disrupting the entire system.

The rise in U.S. energy exports is a symptom of global supply shocks pushing countries to seek alternative sources. This demand closes the price gap between U.S. (WTI) and global (Brent) crude, leading to higher prices at the pump for American consumers.

Since the U.S. is a net oil exporter, controlling massive reserves like Venezuela's is less critical. The real power now lies in controlling the flow of oil to adversaries like China, which is dependent on imports and could be crippled by a supply cutoff.

By consolidating influence over Venezuelan and Guyanese reserves alongside its own, the U.S. could control nearly a third of global oil reserves. This would fundamentally reshape energy geopolitics, diminishing the influence of powers like Saudi Arabia and potentially keeping oil prices in a lower range.