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John McDermott says title deeds alone won't make banks lend while compensation for original farmers remains unanswered. A $3.5bn deal with Mugabe's successor never fully materialized, leaving agriculture in a purgatorial state and discouraging long-term investment. Property rights, not just production, determine whether farms can modernize.
Residents of developing-world slums are often unable to improve their dwellings because they lack defined legal titles. Without enforceable ownership, occupants cannot rent structures, sell their property, or leverage homes as collateral to finance necessary building improvements.
Aliko Dangote reveals China's competitive edge in Africa is superior financing. Chinese firms offer attractive supplier credits, such as 20% down with a five-year term, backed by state insurance. This allows African companies to scale projects faster compared to Western firms that often demand full payment upfront.
John McDermott suspects around half of joint ventures end before their five-to-seven-year contracts. Lack of trust discourages investment in slow-profit crops like avocados and blueberries, and some younger farmers consider mining instead amid high gold prices. That undermines the model's long-term agricultural promise. It remains a stopgap, not a settled revival.
An insight dating back to Benjamin Franklin—that land could be used as collateral to create currency—has scaled globally. Modern banks have increasingly shifted away from business lending to become primarily mortgage originators, making entire economies highly exposed to land prices.
Over the past decade, the biggest financial pressure on farmers isn't volatile input costs like fertilizer, but rather the doubling of land prices. With crop futures prices stagnant since 2016, land rent can now constitute up to half of the total cost to grow an acre of corn, creating a severe, long-term margin squeeze.
The value of prime US farmland has decoupled from its agricultural cash-flow potential. It now trades like gold, with investors accepting low cap rates (around 2%) in anticipation of high appreciation (6%+). This makes outright ownership nearly impossible for farmers, as the investment can't be justified by operational returns.
Despite ongoing political concerns, the most optimistic story in Africa is the rise of a robust private sector. This is particularly visible in agriculture and agribusiness, where pan-African conglomerates are emerging. These firms are creating value and operating across borders, demonstrating a new level of economic traction independent of state capacity.
According to Dangote, China's business success in Africa stems from its aggressive financing terms. Unlike Western companies that often require full payment upfront, Chinese suppliers offer multi-year credit with small down payments, backed by their state insurance, enabling African companies to leverage capital and grow faster.
John McDermott says big tobacco firms including Tianzi lend farmers money and inputs, repaid at harvest. That contract farming has boosted smallholders like Lovemore Chiwa and encouraged new white farmers, while other crops lack similar credit. Credit, not just land, is the binding constraint on Zimbabwean agriculture. Tobacco's quick crop cycle makes the model work.
John McDermott says younger white Zimbabwean farmers, mostly in their 30s and 40s, partner with black recipients of large land parcels from the fast-track reform. Most ask former owners for permission; one said he would rather someone use his farm than let it ruin. It is pragmatic, sensitive progress.