The era of scaling through low-ACV, product-led growth is fading. Today's rapid growth stories, especially in the capital-intensive AI space, are driven by massive, founder-led strategic deals for infrastructure and partnerships, reminiscent of the pre-dot-com internet era.

Perplexity, reportedly valued at $20B, is paying Snap—valued at half that—$400M for distribution. This inverted dynamic, where the less mature company pays for access, highlights how AI-related market caps are often detached from fundamental business performance like revenue and user base.

While many investors hunt for pure monopolies, most tech markets naturally support a handful of large players in an oligopoly structure. Markets like payments (Stripe, Adyen, PayPal) demonstrate that multiple large, successful companies can coexist, a crucial distinction for market analysis and investment strategy.

Companies like Amazon are seeing massive market cap increases (e.g., $150B) from announcing large deals with OpenAI ($38B). This highlights a "press release economy" where the announcement itself creates immense value, even if the underlying financial commitments are not fully binding or guaranteed.

When a large tech company's technical dominance is waning, it shifts strategy from winning with superior products to using its balance sheet to acquire customers and pre-announcing future tech to create FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), convincing buyers to wait instead of choosing a competitor's better solution today.

PayPal's shares plummeted after simultaneously announcing a surprise CEO replacement and a weak profit forecast. This contrasts with smoother, telegraphed transitions like Disney's, showing how markets punish perceived instability and the lack of a clear turnaround plan with severe valuation cuts.

Recent acquisitions of slow-growth public SaaS companies are not just value grabs but turnaround plays. Acquirers believe these companies' distribution can be revitalized by injecting AI-native products, creating a path back to high growth and higher multiples.

The celebrated $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal was revealed by Nvidia's CEO to be just an 'invitation to invest,' not a firm commitment. This highlights the dangers of the 'press release economy,' where grand announcements are made for hype before deals are papered, creating a perception gap that can lead to public backtracking and reputational risk.

Despite massive spending and partnerships, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta have failed to launch a defining, consumer-facing AI product. This surprising lack of execution challenges the assumption that incumbents would easily dominate the AI space, leaving the door open for native AI startups.