Citing economist Ed Glaeser's 'capacity eats policy for a light snack,' the core argument is that the government's ability to execute—having the right people with the right skills—is a far greater determinant of success than the policy itself. Lacking execution capacity dooms even the best-laid plans.
Idealists often believe the best idea will naturally triumph. In reality, an idea's success is determined by the "innovation capital" of its champion—their credibility, network, and influence. The idea and the innovator's capital are a combined package, not separate entities.
Don't dismiss high-leverage but hard-to-measure interventions like government capacity building. Use "cost-effectiveness thinking": create back-of-the-envelope calculations and estimate success probabilities. This imposes quantitative discipline on qualitative decisions, avoiding the streetlight effect of only focusing on what's easily measured.
When investigating recurring government failures, especially in technology, the root cause is frequently a broken HR or hiring process. The inability to hire and retain key talent is the underlying issue that prevents mission-critical problems from being solved. As Jennifer Pahlka says, 'it was workforce all along.'
China operates as a high-agency "engineering state" that executes relentlessly on large-scale projects. In contrast, America's deliberative, litigious society often leads to endless delays and failures on major infrastructure goals like the California high-speed rail, highlighting a fundamental difference in state capacity and approach.
The US has historically benefited from a baseline level of high competence in its government officials, regardless of party. This tradition is now eroding, being replaced by a focus on loyalty over expertise. This degradation from competence to acolytes poses a significant, underrecognized threat to national stability and global standing.
The government's core model for funding, oversight, and talent management is a relic of the post-WWII industrial era. Slapping modern technology like AI onto this outdated 'operating system' is a recipe for failure. A fundamental backend overhaul is required, not just a frontend facelift.
The belief that China builds fast only because it's a dictatorship is flawed. Democratic America built a B-24 bomber every hour during WWII, while today it struggles with basic infrastructure. This shows that bureaucratic decay, not the form of government, is the true barrier to rapid execution.
A former White House advisor noted that the core theories behind major policies are often well-established. The true challenge and critical skill is navigating the complex government process—the interagency meetings and procedures—to translate an idea into official action.
Singapore's economic success is credited to its founding leaders' decision to attract and retain top-tier talent in the civil service and politics with high compensation. This creates a highly competent bureaucracy capable of sophisticated, long-term policy planning that enables a thriving business environment.
An effective governance model involves successful private sector leaders doing a "tour of duty" in government. This brings valuable, real-world expertise to policymaking. While critics cite conflicts of interest, the benefit is having qualified individuals shape regulations for national benefit, rather than career bureaucrats.