To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.

The most significant mindset shift for founders is realizing they can't force a customer to have demand. Demand is an objective state in the customer's world—a project they are already trying to accomplish. This transforms sales calls from high-pressure convincing into low-pressure discovery, liberating the founder from feeling responsible for the outcome.

Real demand isn't a wish list; it's an active struggle. "Coping" customers are fighting a subpar solution right now, while "blocked" customers would act immediately if a viable option existed. Both represent a "spring-loaded" market ready to adopt a new product that solves their problem.

A 'dam' represents pent-up demand where users are frustrated and merely 'coping' with the status quo. Introducing a 10x better solution, often via new tech, doesn't create demand; it bursts the dam, releasing a flood of customers who see it as a magical fix for a problem they already have.

Treat your startup like a drug discovery experiment. A market's needs are like biological 'binding receptors'—they either exist or they don't. Marketing can raise awareness of your 'drug' (product), but it can't convince the body to grow new receptors. If you lack product-market fit, don't try to market your way out of it.

Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.

This reframes the fundamental goal of a startup away from a supply-side focus (building) to a demand-side focus (discovery). The market's unmet need is the force that pulls a company and its product into existence, not the other way around.

The "Pull Framework" defines demand not by pain, but by observable action. It requires a customer to have an active, unavoidable project, to have already explored existing options, and to find those options insufficient. This is the signal for a product they will eagerly "pull" from your hands, even if it's imperfect.

Using a child's toy analogy, demand is a pre-existing hole (e.g., a star shape) and your product is the block. Founders fail when they build a block and then search for a hole it fits. The real job is to first deeply understand the shape of the hole, then craft a block that fits it perfectly.