Instead of a single, generalizable AI, we are creating 'Functional AGI'—a collection of specialized AIs layered together. This system will feel like AGI to users but lacks true cross-domain reasoning, as progress in one area (like coding) doesn't translate to others (like history).

Broad improvements in AI's general reasoning are plateauing due to data saturation. The next major phase is vertical specialization. We will see an "explosion" of different models becoming superhuman in highly specific domains like chemistry or physics, rather than one model getting slightly better at everything.

Instead of a single, all-powerful AGI emerging, the reality of AI is a "polytheistic" ecosystem of many decentralized models, each with different strengths. This framework challenges the notion of a single entity to control or fear and suggests a more complex, competitive landscape.

Early AI metaphors centered on a single omnipotent entity like Ultron. Practical limitations like token windows and processing threads mean the more effective model is a 'swarm' or 'colony' of specialized agents, where orchestration becomes the key challenge.

The next evolution for autonomous agents is the ability to form "agentic teams." This involves creating specialized agents for different tasks (e.g., research, content creation) that can hand off work to one another, moving beyond a single user-to-agent relationship towards a system of collaborating AIs.

The most powerful AI systems consist of specialized agents with distinct roles (e.g., individual coaching, corporate strategy, knowledge base) that interact. This modular approach, exemplified by the Holmes, Mycroft, and 221B agents, creates a more robust and scalable solution than a single, all-knowing agent.

Human intelligence leaped forward when language enabled horizontal scaling (collaboration). Current AI development is focused on vertical scaling (creating bigger 'individual genius' models). The next frontier is distributed AI that can share intent, knowledge, and innovation, mimicking humanity's cognitive evolution.

A single AI agent attempting multiple complex tasks produces mediocre results. The more effective paradigm is creating a team of specialized agents, each dedicated to a single task, mimicking a human team structure and avoiding context overload.

A more likely AI future involves an ecosystem of specialized agents, each mastering a specific domain (e.g., physical vs. digital worlds), rather than a single, monolithic AGI that understands everything. These agents will require protocols to interact.