While more data and compute yield linear improvements, true step-function advances in AI come from unpredictable algorithmic breakthroughs like Transformers. These creative ideas are the most difficult to innovate on and represent the highest-leverage, yet riskiest, area for investment and research focus.

Wet lab experiments are slow and expensive, forcing scientists to pursue safer, incremental hypotheses. AI models can computationally test riskier, 'home run' ideas before committing lab resources. This de-risking makes scientists less hesitant to explore breakthrough concepts that could accelerate the field.

Unlike traditional engineering, breakthroughs in foundational AI research often feel binary. A model can be completely broken until a handful of key insights are discovered, at which point it suddenly works. This "all or nothing" dynamic makes it impossible to predict timelines, as you don't know if a solution is a week or two years away.

The 2012 breakthrough that ignited the modern AI era used the ImageNet dataset, a novel neural network, and only two NVIDIA gaming GPUs. This demonstrates that foundational progress can stem from clever architecture and the right data, not just massive initial compute power, a lesson often lost in today's scale-focused environment.

The next leap in biotech moves beyond applying AI to existing data. CZI pioneers a model where 'frontier biology' and 'frontier AI' are developed in tandem. Experiments are now designed specifically to generate novel data that will ground and improve future AI models, creating a virtuous feedback loop.

AI's evolution can be seen in two eras. The first, the "ImageNet era," required massive human effort for supervised labeling within a fixed ontology. The modern era unlocked exponential growth by developing algorithms that learn from the implicit structure of vast, unlabeled internet data, removing the human bottleneck.

The future of valuable AI lies not in models trained on the abundant public internet, but in those built on scarce, proprietary data. For fields like robotics and biology, this data doesn't exist to be scraped; it must be actively created, making the data generation process itself the key competitive moat.

CZI focuses on creating new tools for science, a 10-15 year process that's often underfunded. Instead of just giving grants, they build and operate their own institutes, physically co-locating scientists and engineers to accelerate breakthroughs in areas traditional funding misses.

A key strategy for labs like Anthropic is automating AI research itself. By building models that can perform the tasks of AI researchers, they aim to create a feedback loop that dramatically accelerates the pace of innovation.