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For a rapidly compounding business like TBBB, which aims to grow from 3,500 to 15,000 stores, the initial valuation multiple becomes less important over a long-term horizon. The exponential growth in earnings can overwhelm the entry price, similar to early investments in Walmart or Costco.

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When a company is growing 10x or 50x year-over-year, obsessing over the entry multiple is a mistake. An initially 'insane' valuation can look cheap in retrospect. The primary focus should be on determining if the company is on an exponential curve; price is the least important factor in that equation.

Even within metrics like the "Rule of 40," the composition matters. High-growth companies command higher valuations because growth provides more optionality to invest and expand. A company growing at 30% with 10% EBITDA is worth more than one with 20% growth and 20% EBITDA.

The fund owns Walmart de México (Walmex), accessing the same proven business model as the US parent but at an earlier growth stage and a much lower valuation (15x vs. 40x P/E). This is a clear play on geographic valuation arbitrage for a high-quality asset.

Dara Khosrowshahi's M&A experience taught him that great acquisitions often seem overpriced. Markets value companies on linear projections, but transformative companies grow exponentially. The key is to pay for the unseen "hockey stick" growth curve that the market misses, meaning you will always overpay relative to current sentiment.

TBBB's expansion strategy is based on a distribution center (DC) servicing a set number of stores. Once a DC's region reaches capacity (around 200 stores), it 'splits,' forming a new operational cell. This decentralized model empowers local managers and enables methodical, repeatable growth.

Public market investors systematically underestimate sustained high growth (e.g., 60%+), defaulting to models that assume rapid deceleration. This creates an opportunity for private investors with longer time horizons to more accurately value these companies.

The speaker argues that if Tiendas 3B were a U.S.-based company with the same growth profile and operational success, its valuation would likely be double. This suggests the current stock price offers a significant discount for perceived risks associated with operating in Mexico.

Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.

Investors instinctively value the distant future cash flows of elite compounding businesses higher than traditional financial models suggest. This phenomenon, known as hyperbolic discounting, helps explain why these companies consistently command premium multiples, as the market behaves more aligned with this model than standard exponential discounting.

New entrants in discount retail struggle with a paradox: achieving low prices requires massive scale, but building that scale is difficult without the attractive unit economics that low prices provide. Tiendas 3B spent nearly two decades solving this, creating a significant competitive moat.

High-Growth Retailers Like Tiendas 3B Can Make High Entry Multiples Irrelevant | RiffOn