AWS's partnership with Rio Tinto funds a new refining method for low-grade copper. While the initial volume is small, success could make 70% of previously uneconomical ore viable, tripling supply and lowering prices for future data center build-outs.
Amazon is investing billions in OpenAI, which OpenAI will then use to purchase Amazon's cloud services and proprietary Trainium chips. This vendor financing model locks in a major customer for AWS while funding the AI leader's massive compute needs, creating a self-reinforcing financial loop.
Instead of bearing the full cost and risk of building new AI data centers, large cloud providers like Microsoft use CoreWeave for 'overflow' compute. This allows them to meet surges in customer demand without committing capital to assets that depreciate quickly and may become competitors' infrastructure in the long run.
The capital expenditure for AI infrastructure mirrors massive industrial projects like LNG terminals, not typical tech spending. This involves the same industrial suppliers who benefited from previous government initiatives and were later sold off by investors, creating a fresh opportunity as they are now central to the AI buildout.
Facing immense electricity needs for AI, tech giants like Amazon are now directly investing in nuclear power, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs). This infusion of venture capital is revitalizing a sector that has historically relied on slow-moving government funding, imbuing it with a Silicon Valley spirit.
Companies like Tesla and AWS are investing in lithium and copper refining to control their supply chains, a new phase of vertical integration driven by AI's massive industrial needs for data centers and batteries.
Facing China's export restrictions on rare earth metals, the U.S. immediate strategy is "ally-shoring": striking a major deal with Australia. This secures the supply chain through geopolitical partnerships as a faster, more pragmatic alternative to the long process of building domestic capacity from scratch.
To solve the chicken-and-egg problem for new green products like clean steel, companies can use Advanced Market Commitments. A coalition of buyers pre-commits to purchasing the product, giving producers the financial security to build out manufacturing.
While media outlets create hype cycles around certain critical materials like rare earths, other equally vital commodities such as tungsten and tin face similar geopolitical supply risks but receive far less attention. These 'un-hyped' bottlenecks present significant investment opportunities for diligent researchers.
The major outage at the Grasberg mine, which supplies 3% of the world's copper, is turning a previously balanced market into a significant deficit for 2025 and 2026. This highlights supply chain fragility, as there were no existing surpluses to absorb the shock.
AWS CEO Matt Garman's emphasis on "customer choice," combined with Jeff Bezos's philosophy of being customer-obsessed rather than competitor-obsessed, suggests AWS might offer Google's TPUs in their data centers if customers demand them, despite the direct competition.