Combat in space or on the moon will be swift and catastrophic because spaceships and habitats are inherently fragile. Due to severe mass and volume constraints, they cannot be armored effectively. The winning strategy is not to withstand a hit, but to avoid detection, targeting, and being fired upon entirely.

Related Insights

The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.

Warfare has evolved to a "sixth domain" where cyber becomes physical. Mass drone swarms act like a distributed software attack, requiring one-to-many defense systems analogous to antivirus software, rather than traditional one-missile-per-target defenses which cannot scale.

The conflict in Ukraine exposed the vulnerability of expensive, "exquisite" military platforms (like tanks) to inexpensive technologies (like drones). This has shifted defense priorities toward cheap, mass-producible, "attritable" systems. This fundamental change in product and economics creates a massive opportunity for startups to innovate outside the traditional defense prime model.

Unlike on Earth, where atmospheric drag makes electromagnetic launchers (mass drivers) impractical, the Moon's vacuum environment makes them highly efficient. This technology could turn the Moon into a "train station" for the solar system, launching raw materials and goods to Mars at a fraction of the energy cost.

In defense technology, smaller is often better. The ideal platform is the most compact one that can still perform its intended mission. This approach provides significant advantages in stealth, manufacturing cost, logistical footprint, and speed of proliferation.

Instead of matching China's manufacturing output one-for-one, the US should pursue an asymmetric strategy. This involves leveraging American ingenuity to create superior, low-cost countermeasures, like undefeatable missiles, that neutralize a volume advantage.

While optical camouflage to trick the human eye is a solved technology, it's irrelevant on the modern battlefield. Adversaries rely on a wide spectrum of sensors like infrared, thermal, and radar, which can easily detect optically-cloaked objects, making the technology strategically impractical for Anduril's customers.

Anduril developed functional optical camouflage that makes drones nearly invisible to the human eye. However, the technology is not deployed because modern adversaries use thermal, infrared, LiDAR, and radar sensors, which would easily detect such a system. Hiding in the visible spectrum alone is an obsolete advantage.

As autonomous weapon systems become increasingly lethal, the battlefield will be too dangerous for human soldiers. The founder of Allen Control Systems argues that conflict will transform into 'robot on robot action,' where victory is determined not by soldiers, but by which nation can produce the most effective systems at the lowest cost.

The war in Ukraine has evolved from a traditional territorial conflict into a "robot war," with drones dominating the front lines. This real-world battlefield is accelerating innovation at an "unbelievable" pace, driving new solutions for secure communications and autonomous targeting, providing critical lessons for US drone strategy.