When the government guaranteed student loans, it removed the risk for colleges. This allowed them to hike tuition prices unchecked, knowing students had access to funding. The resulting flood of graduates has also made a college degree less of a differentiator in the job market.

The student debt crisis is less about the cost of college and more about the failure to graduate. The vast majority of a degree's economic benefit is realized only upon completion. Attending college without graduating is a poor investment, making completion rates a more critical focus for policy than enrollment.

The unemployment rate for college-educated young men has surged to 7%, matching that of their peers without a degree. This parity indicates that a traditional degree's value in securing entry-level employment is eroding for this demographic, challenged by AI automation and increased competition from experienced workers.

By promising a tuition refund if students don't earn $1M by graduation, Alpha School shifts the goal from academic metrics to tangible achievement, creating extreme accountability for the institution.

To fix the student debt crisis, universities should be financially on the hook for the first portion of any loan default (e.g., $20,000). This "first loss" position would compel them to underwrite the economic viability of their own degrees, creating a powerful market check against pushing students into overpriced and low-value programs.

Despite earning degrees, 45% of recent college graduates find themselves in low-wage jobs because they lack marketable skills. This suggests a significant disconnect between traditional, time-based higher education and real-world employer demands, turning many expensive degrees into mere "certificates of attendance."

By incentivizing university for all, government policies created a surplus of graduates and a critical shortage of skilled tradespeople. This market distortion inadvertently made trades like plumbing a highly profitable "blue ocean" where demand far outstrips supply.

Blanket student loan forgiveness fails to address the root cause: skyrocketing tuition fueled by easy credit. A better solution is to force universities to have skin in the game by making them financially liable for a percentage of defaulted loans, which would incentivize responsible lending and curb price inflation.

The debate over college's worth should be framed as a bargain, not a simple "good vs. bad" decision. The most critical factor is the amount of debt incurred. A full-ride scholarship has minimal downside, whereas a debt-funded degree for a non-essential career can be a significant financial trap.