Recent "canary in the coal mine" cases like First Brands, often blamed on private markets, were not PE-owned and were primarily financed in liquid markets. In fact, it was private credit firms pushing for deeper diligence that exposed the issues, strengthening the argument that private credit offers a safer way to access the asset class.

Related Insights

Backing independent sponsors on a deal-by-deal basis is more than an investment strategy; it is an extended due diligence process. This approach provides deep, real-time insights into a manager's problem-solving skills under pressure, offering transparency that is impossible to achieve before a Fund I commitment.

When studying failed money management firms, WCM found that founders were unwilling to discuss their mistakes. The most valuable, unfiltered lessons about what truly went wrong came from conducting deep diligence with former employees of those organizations.

For LPs, the primary benefit of pre-fund co-investments with emerging managers isn't just financial returns. It's a critical diligence tool to observe intangible qualities, such as a sponsor's discipline to abandon a flawed deal, which strongly correlates with long-term success.

The classic distressed debt strategy is broken. Market dislocation windows are now incredibly narrow, often lasting just days. Furthermore, low interest rates for the past decade eliminated the ability to earn meaningful carry on discounted debt. This has forced distressed funds to rebrand as 'capital solutions' and focus on private, structured deals.

For the sophisticated custom target-date funds that will be early adopters, private credit is the easiest first step. Unlike private equity, some private credit products can already be marked daily. This operational readiness, combined with liquidity from distributions, makes it the path of least resistance.

Auto parts company FBG funded its acquisition spree with a sophisticated fraud using "invoice factoring," a corporate version of a payday loan. By selling the same tranche of invoices to multiple private creditors, it illegitimately raised funds, leading to a collapse with $2.3 billion unaccounted for.

An expert reveals two shocking statistics: 80% of new founders fail their first diligence attempt, and 85% of early-stage investors don't perform confirmatory diligence. This highlights a massive, systemic weakness and inefficiency in the startup ecosystem, creating significant risk on both sides of the table.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.

The trend of companies staying private longer and raising huge late-stage rounds isn't just about VC exuberance. It's a direct consequence of a series of regulations (like Sarbanes-Oxley) that made going public extremely costly and onerous. As a result, the private capital markets evolved to fill the gap, fundamentally changing venture capital.

A credit investor's true edge lies not in understanding a company's operations, but in mastering the right-hand side of the balance sheet. This includes legal structures, credit agreements, and bankruptcy processes. Private equity investors, who are owners, will always have superior knowledge of the business itself (the left-hand side).