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AI development isn't free; it shifts the economic model of software from zero marginal cost to one with variable costs based on token consumption. This makes Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) a critical, and often new, metric for SaaS founders.
Unlike traditional SaaS, AI companies have significant variable costs for compute and tokens. This makes revenue a poor proxy for profitability, as their gross margins are fundamentally different from high-margin software businesses鈥攁 fact many investors miss.
As more companies integrate AI, their costs are tied to variable usage (e.g., tokens, inference). This is causing a profound, economy-wide transformation away from predictable seat-based subscriptions towards more dynamic usage-based models to align costs with revenue.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
The dominant per-user-per-month SaaS business model is becoming obsolete for AI-native companies. The new standard is consumption or outcome-based pricing. Customers will pay for the specific task an AI completes or the value it generates, not for a seat license, fundamentally changing how software is sold.
Unlike traditional SaaS, achieving product-market fit in AI doesn't guarantee a viable business. The high cost of goods sold (COGS) from model inference can exceed revenue, causing companies to lose more money as they scale. This forces a focus on economical model deployment from day one.
Sam Yagan notes that while the internet made publishing free, AI introduces a marginal cost for every user interaction via token fees. This creates a COGS for consumer tech companies for the first time, forcing founders to reconsider unit economics in a way previous generations didn't have to.
Software has long commanded premium valuations due to near-zero marginal distribution costs. AI breaks this model. The significant, variable cost of inference means expenses scale with usage, fundamentally altering software's economic profile and forcing valuations down toward those of traditional industries.
The traditional SaaS model鈥攈igh R&D/sales costs, low COGS鈥攊s being inverted. AI makes building software cheap but running it expensive due to high inference costs (COGS). This threatens profitability, as companies now face high customer acquisition costs AND high costs of goods sold.
The business model for AI is pivoting away from SaaS-style subscriptions. Enterprise-focused labs like Anthropic see massive revenue not from adding users, but from the immense token consumption of API power users. A single developer can be 100x more valuable than a subscriber, forcing a shift to consumption-based pricing.
As AI agents perform more work and human headcount decreases, the traditional seat-based pricing model becomes obsolete. The value is no longer tied to human users. SaaS companies must transition to consumption-based models that charge for the automated work performed and value generated by AI.