Unlike equity investors hunting for uncapped upside, debt lenders have a fixed return and are intolerant to losing principal. This forces them to be paranoid about downside risk and worst-case scenarios. Their diligence process is often more thorough and thoughtful, providing a different and rigorous lens on the business.

During the 2023 banking crisis, IBKR’s holdings of short-dated bonds allowed it to benefit from rising rates while competitors with long-dated assets suffered. This shows a conservative balance sheet is not just defensive but an offensive tool to win client trust and outperform during turmoil.

Success in community bank investing doesn't require complex esoteric analysis. It boils down to four key metrics: high capital levels (equity-to-assets), low non-performing assets (under 2%), stable or growing book value, and a low price-to-tangible book value (under 85%).

Michael Mauboussin's research reveals a surprising trend. Despite a long period of low interest rates, non-financial corporate debt to total capital is around 15% today, significantly lower than the historical average of 26%. This suggests balance sheets are stronger than commonly perceived.

A credit rating is just a starting point. Crossmark's Victoria Fernandez uses an Alcoa example to show how their independent balance sheet analysis revealed the company could still service its debt, allowing them to hold a downgraded bond to maturity and avoid realizing a significant loss.

The common debt-to-GDP ratio inappropriately compares a balance sheet item (debt, a stock) to an income statement item (GDP, a flow). Laffer argues for more accurate comparisons like debt-to-wealth (stock-to-stock) or debt service-to-GDP (flow-to-flow) for a proper assessment of a nation's financial health.

A new risk is entering the AI capital stack: leverage. Entities are being created with high-debt financing (80% debt, 20% equity), creating 'leverage upon leverage.' This structure, combined with circular investments between major players, echoes the telecom bust of the late 90s and requires close monitoring.

When considering debt, the most critical due diligence is not on deal terms but on the lender's character. Investigate how they have treated portfolio companies during challenging times. Partnering with a lender who will "blow you up" at the first sign of trouble is a catastrophic risk.

Once considered safe due to low CapEx and recurring revenue models, the technology sector now shows significant credit stress. Investors allowed higher leverage on these companies, but the sharp rise in interest rates in 2022 exposed this vulnerability, placing tech alongside historically troubled sectors like media and retail.