Despite high prices, Bitcoin sentiment is terrible, and the market feels 'boring.' This is a strong positive indicator because it shows speculative retail traders ('tourists') are absent, leaving a solid base of committed holders and institutions. A boring market is difficult to short.

Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.

Julian Robertson's "story-based" investing wasn't about speculative narratives. It was a framework to ensure an investment thesis, like the supply-demand dynamics of copper, was logical and easily understood. If the core logic changed, the investment itself had to change.

While institutional capital market assumptions align with objective, yield-based models, their actual portfolio actions can deviate. Many institutions, despite models suggesting caution on expensive US stocks, maintained market weight, benefiting from the prolonged bull market. This highlights a critical inconsistency between their stated process and real-world behavior.

The primary driver of market fluctuations is the dramatic shift in attitudes toward risk. In good times, investors become risk-tolerant and chase gains ('Risk is my friend'). In bad times, risk aversion dominates ('Get me out at any price'). This emotional pendulum causes security prices to fluctuate far more than their underlying intrinsic values.

Widespread public debate about whether a market is in a bubble is evidence that it is not. A true financial bubble requires capitulation, where nearly everyone believes the high valuations are justified and the skepticism disappears. As long as there are many vocal doubters, the market has not reached the euphoric peak that precedes a crash.

Contrary to classic theory, markets may be growing less efficient. This is driven not only by passive indexing but also by a structural shift in active management towards short-term, quantitative strategies that prioritize immediate price movements over long-term fundamental value.

Marks emphasizes that he correctly identified the dot-com and subprime mortgage bubbles without being an expert in the underlying assets. His value came from observing the "folly" in investor behavior and the erosion of risk aversion, suggesting market psychology is more critical than domain knowledge for spotting bubbles.

Robertson recognized the "silly season" phenomenon of "automatic winners"—companies whose stocks surge due to association with a hot theme, like AIDS or AI, rather than intrinsic value. His discipline to avoid these hype-driven investments is a key lesson in navigating market bubbles.